Up to now, Senate fortunes have tracked the ups and downs of the Presidential race. What about now, after last week’s downturn?
One measure is the likelihood of getting to 50 or more Democratic/Independent seats. In today’s update, the probability* of Democratic retention is still high, 95% (calculated by splitting the 50-seats scenario in half). The median outcome is 54 D/I, 46 R. The 68% confidence interval is 53-55 seats.
Last week’s Presidential crash is not yet apparent in Senate races – though in most cases, fresh information is not yet available. Where we do have post-debate Senate polls some races have not moved much (MA, WI, VA), or have followed the Presidential ticket down – and perhaps back (OH). I am a bit puzzled as to why downticket races didn’t follow the President downhill. Given the infrequency of Senate polling, I may never find out the answer.
Thanks to Rick in Miami.
*The histogram and graph above assumes that 50 D/I lead to Democratic control, in which case the probability is 97%.