The Meta-Analysis, a snapshot of today’s conditions, has taken a remarkably sharp and large downtick for President Obama. This comes with a massive polling release from three Republican-leaning pollsters: Rasmussen, Gravis, and We Ask America. Just think – what are the odds that they would all come out of the gate so fast and all at once? It’s almost like they planned it. I guess the true size of the change will get sorted out over the next 1-2 days.
Kevin Drum at Mother Jones asked me to come up with a set of November predictions by today. The midst of a political storm is an unusual time to ask about where we’ll land on shore. But OK, here is where things stand today.
First, a little homily.Without an expression of uncertainty, predictions are parlor tricks. It is not enough to express a win probability. Always ask prognosticators what their uncertainties and/or confidence intervals are. Such numbers can give a very clear view of how strongly to weight the prediction.
The November predictions below come with 1-sigma confidence intervals; approximately two-thirds of the time (68% to be exact), the outcome should be within this range. All calculations are done according to the most recently discussed methods, which are linked.
President: Obama 332 EV, Romney 206 EV. The 1-sigma range (68% of outcomes) is Obama 314-347 EV. The 2-sigma (95%) range is 282-347 EV (95%).
Two-candidate vote share: Obama 52.1+/-0.8%, Romney 47.9 +/-0.8%.
Senate: 54 D/I, 46 R. The 1-sigma confidence interval is 53-55 D/I; 2-sigma, 51-56 D/I.
House predictions are coming soon. I am double-checking a few things. As you know, it’s a more difficult prediction to make.