Via Andrew Sullivan, several claims that the Presidential race may be tightening. Maybe at a national level, but not where it counts:
In national polls, the median for polls from 9/26 to 10/1 is Obama +4.0+/-0.6% (n=11). Yet the Meta-Margin, which measures what it would take to flip the swing states, is at Obama +6.0%, including a substantial uptick today.
Although the Meta-Margin, which is based on state polls, can sometimes take a little while to catch up with national polls, it is extremely precise – within a few tenths of a percentage point. Its sharp rise indicates that something is afoot. Obama appears to be significantly overperforming in critical battlegrounds compared with the rest of the country. Is this because of the much-vaunted microtargeting by the Obama campaign? Whatever the cause, this hill is a very tall one for Romney to climb in October.