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Entries from September 13th, 2012

The power of investing in state races

September 13th, 2012, 9:00pm by Sam Wang

From Abby Rapoport at The American Prospect via Andrew Sullivan, a must-read on how “Down-ticket races matter a lot in shaping policy—that’s why conservatives are smart enough to invest in them.” She writes about state legislatures, but it’s the same for House and Senate races. And who loves such a bang for their buck most of […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Senate

Romney’s ceiling, Obama’s floor

September 13th, 2012, 2:58pm by Sam Wang

With less than eight weeks before the election, the extremist attack in Benghazi, Libya has assumed center stage for one of those weeks. This is a terrible moment for the family members of those killed, and for the United States. For Team Romney, it is also bad. For starters, foreign policy is no longer considered […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Dark side of the polling moon: Indiana and North Dakota

September 12th, 2012, 11:17am by Sam Wang

Despite the fact that Senate control is on a knife edge (Politico NYT), publicly available polls are surprisingly scarce. I estimate that 6-8 seats are in genuine play, with a probability of continued Democratic control of 60%, the current likely range being 48 to 52 Democratic/Independent seats. Today, a brief review of two underpolled races – and […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Thank you!

September 11th, 2012, 3:56pm by Sam Wang

If you look at the left…the $25,000 target on the thermometer has been exceeded, two months early. T. Roberts, a reader of this site since 2004, put us over the top. Thank you all. Soon I may have to reset the thermometer. As indicated by the rumblings, Team Romney is now trying to avoid discussing the […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · Senate

Republicans catch up with “the math”

September 11th, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Regarding the new conventional wisdom, Mark Halperin at TIME writes: “Romney…is in danger of living out the Haley Barbour dictum: in politics, bad gets worse. Super PACs might start shifting their money from the presidential race to save the House majority and look to pick up Senate seats.” I’m glad to see everyone catching up […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Questions about the Meta-analysis?

September 10th, 2012, 7:29pm by Sam Wang

There’s an FAQ. Here is more for the math-y and for the total code nerds.

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Tags: 2012 Election

The post-Democratic convention bounce begins

September 10th, 2012, 9:34am by Sam Wang

The state poll meta-analysis has jumped by 10 electoral votes, and by 0.7% in Popular Vote Meta-Margin. Movements of >5 EV and >0.5% usually happen only when a real shift is occurring. Already things are looking very unlike the GOP-convention anti-bounce. Note that the last time the Meta-analysis moved this fast on the first day was the […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Michelle Obama, the Great Persuader

September 9th, 2012, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

Tweet Yesterday, Gallup reported a big jump in their three-day rolling average of President Obama’s approval rating. Can we figure out what day it happened? Yes, and it shows how a single speech can move national opinion, even if only briefly.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

The GOP convention negative bounce: a final look

September 7th, 2012, 6:23pm by Sam Wang

Tweet (Greetings Political Wire, Andrew Sullivan, Reddit, Fark, & others. For what our low-noise approach recommends for your Dem/GOP donation, click here.) Soon, post-DNC state polls will begin to arrive. So here is the best glimpse we are going to get of the negative post-GOP-convention bounce. Basically, their convention appears to have helped…Obama. It’s the part in […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Stat-urday: Lombardo’s Quadratic Molasses

September 7th, 2012, 11:00am by Sam Wang

You are so impatient. Today is still all pre-DNC data. But I predict you’ll recognize the bounce when it hits. Another Stat-urday. Let’s look at Steve Lombardo’s claim that “you didn’t build that” was a quadratic turning point on July 13th. Aside from the fact that this “trend” extrapolates to a 20-point win by Romney on […]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President