Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from September 18th, 2012

Post-moocher bounce?

September 18th, 2012, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

I’ve written before about an unusual survey, the RAND American Life Panel. It allows the same people to be followed over time, thus allowing a look at individuals who change their minds.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Who are these likely voters, anyway?

September 18th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

After Labor Day, most pollsters start to apply “likely voter screens,” in which they attempt to identify respondents who are not just registered to vote, but who will actually schlep to the polls (or vote by mail) in the election. Many of you have asked what is in these screens, and whether to be suspicious [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election · 2012 Election

Post-DNC bounce – and a technical announcement

September 18th, 2012, 8:16am by Sam Wang

Good morning, moochers (click to see Romney’s rapid response to the “my job is not to worry about [the 47%]” tape). The post-DNC bounce is in full effect. However, not all of this morning’s update is that. Some arises from pent-up data due to a technical glitch. To learn more read this.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

A technical correction to the Meta-Analysis

September 18th, 2012, 8:10am by Sam Wang

We must make a technical correction to the Meta-Analysis. This correction does not change the general history of the campaign. However, an explanation is due to those of you who watch the twists and turns of the Meta-Analysis closely.

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

Guest expert: Ed Freeland on wireless phone sampling

September 17th, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang

I am joined today by guest Ed Freeland, director of the Princeton Survey Research Center. Ed offers a survey expert’s view of wireless phone sampling, and how problems are addressed. Later today he will pop by to answer questions in the comment thread. Ed, welcome! -Sam Wang

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Tags: Uncategorized

The week ahead for PEC

September 16th, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

A preview of the week ahead. I plan to have: (1) An expert briefing on wireless phone sampling, courtesy of Ed Freeland, director of the Princeton Survey Research Center. (2) A Presidential election prediction challenge to other forecasters. (3) House and Senate updates, of course. That’s where the action is. Suggest more topics below. Have [...]

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Tags: Site News

External funding is in the House

September 15th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

As I’ve written, the biggest impact of independent expenditures is likely to be at the downticket level. Here’s just one example from a recent CQ Roll Call Daily Briefing. (North Carolina) David Rouzer, the GOP challenger trying to unseat eight-term Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre in eastern North Carolina, got a boost from the GOP-aligned YG Action [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

Presidential Meta-Analysis update

September 14th, 2012, 1:58pm by Sam Wang

Welcome, Daily Dish and Ezra Klein readers. An overview of the fall landscape is here. Our long-range projection of the Obama November win probability, based on polls alone, has been at 87-89% since July. At the end of September will come a more exact projection. The suspense is in the Senate and House. The topline above is [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Meta-analysis · President

The undecided voter’s secret ballot

September 14th, 2012, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

As I wrote yesterday, persuadable and undecided voters in 2012 seem quite scarce. What is actually going on in their brains? In 2008 my colleague Josh Gold and I wrote for the NYT on this subject. I also write about hidden biases in how we make decisions (in all aspects of life) in Welcome To Your Brain [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President · Uncategorized

Quantitative Easing 3, correlations, and causes

September 14th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

A brief note. In comments Tapen Singh, a pensions and finance expert, writes: “With the announcement of the QE3, the game is really over for Romney” and links to this graph. The effects of QE3 (Quantitative Easing 3, a stimulus program by the Federal Reserve) on the economy are likely to be felt fully on a [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election