Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from September 25th, 2012

Bustin’ out?

September 25th, 2012, 6:00am by Sam Wang

Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) was partially correct when he said about Romney: “If the election were going to be held tomorrow that would be a problem.” Take a look at today’s Meta-Analysis update: The EV estimator is nearing the edge of the November +/-2 sigma band (shown in yellow). Something fairly notable is happening. In [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Predictions: Comparisons with InTrade

September 24th, 2012, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

Yesterday, I framed predictions as a tool for planning for the future. Today let’s look at InTrade, a famous electronic market that is said to have good predictive powers. I have maintained that in political races, InTrade is not a very efficient market for making use of polling data. Here are two (seemingly) mostly played-out examples [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

Using predictions in the service of ideals and profit

September 23rd, 2012, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

In everyday life, we use predictions to guide our future actions, from weekend outings (NWS hourly weather) to taking care of our health (EPIC heart study). What do we want from a prediction? A useful prediction often has the following qualities: (1) It is precise, allowing us to pinpoint a narrow range of outcomes. (2) [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

President Shirley Tilghman

September 23rd, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Yesterday, our university’s president, Shirley Tilghman, announced that she was stepping down after over a decade of leadership. She’s been a great leader, and has led Princeton University in an exciting and inspiring way. In so many areas – including expansion in academics across the board, student aid, coping with the economic downturn – she [...]

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Tags: Princeton

Which way to November?

September 22nd, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

I promised you a prediction challenge. Hang on a couple of days – too much discussion arising from the House prediction. A number of concerns have been expressed about the House calculation, which requires more assumptions than the Senate or Presidential calculations. One, concerning the Monkey Cage model (and others like it) is resolved by [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

Monkeying around with House models

September 21st, 2012, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Via Andrew Sullivan, Dylan Matthews asserts that my House outlook (a Democratic takeover probabilty of 74%) is weakened by a model described over at the Monkey Cage. However, a careful reading of that model reveals problems in using it as a prediction – problems of the type I have been warning about for several months. Here [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

Enhanced site capacity

September 20th, 2012, 7:06pm by Sam Wang

Greetings, readers from Andrew Sullivan, Wonkbook (WaPo), Reddit, Mother Jones…and sorry for the meltdown. We’ve enhanced our capacity now. No more crashes we hope!

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Tags: Site News

Republicans at risk of losing the House?

September 20th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang

Tweet // < ![CDATA[ !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=”//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js”;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document,”script”,”twitter-wjs”); // ]]> Note added, September 2014: This analysis did not take into account the effects of redistricting, incumbency, and other factors. For more up-to-date views see an October analysis and this post-election piece, The Great Gerrymander Of 2012 (NYT). Conditions through August showed a 2% lead on the generic Congressional [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

Post-convention coattails reach Senate races

September 19th, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

The post-Democratic convention bounce has not affected Presidential race dynamics. Where it may matter is at the Congressional level. The post-Labor-Day bounce has reached downticket races, a fact that has major implications for control of both the Senate and the House. Both chambers appeared to be on a knife edge in August, but for now [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Romney post-moocher watch, Day 2

September 19th, 2012, 1:38pm by Sam Wang

A continuing look at how specific people, followed over time with repeat polling, are resp0nding after the release of the “moocher” tape from the Romney fundraiser. In RAND’s own words, this survey ”may be more accurately capturing the likely votes of a greater number of voters in the crucial ‘middle’ (i.e., not closely aligned with either candidate). [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President