The state poll meta-analysis has jumped by 10 electoral votes, and by 0.7% in Popular Vote Meta-Margin. Movements of >5 EV and >0.5% usually happen only when a real shift is occurring. Already things are looking very unlike the GOP-convention anti-bounce. Note that the last time the Meta-analysis moved this fast on the first day was the post-Ryan-VP bounce, which peaked at about 40 EV and 3-4%.
Our calculations grind slow, but they grind exceedingly fine. They are based on close to 100 recent state polls from Pollster.com, are very precise, and take days to reach a new stable point.
My November prediction (and warning) are exactly the same. President Obama’s November re-elect probability is…87%, as dictated by this year’s polls and the amount of movement in previous re-election races. The predicted two-candidate outcome is popular vote Obama 51.5 +/- 1.1%, Romney 48.5 +/- 1.1% (1 sigma error bar), and Obama 312 EV, Romney 226 EV.*
In my mind, the real suspense is in control of Congress. This, not the Presidential race, is where the uncertainty for 2013 lies. If you want to influence what happens, give. Democrats, I have listed key races at this ActBlue site. Republicans, give at the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
* For Obama electoral outcome, the 1-sigma CI is 281-353 EV. The 2-sigma CI is 248-360 EV. For a long-tailed distribution that includes “black swan” possibilities, these are 61% and 86% confidence intervals.