Thank you for supporting candidates at my ActBlue page. Senate polls have shifted, and I am adding two Democratic candidates who have entered the knife-edge range (CT-Murphy and MT-Tester). Four more races are still of prime importance in Senate control: ND-Heitkamp, IN-Donnelly, VA-Kaine, and MA-Warren. For example, this article outlines the surprisingly strong candidacy of Heidi Heitkamp.
Republican readers are welcome to visit the National Republican Senatorial Committee site. I recommend their candidates in the same races.
At present, I do not recommend giving to two candidates who have left knife-edge territory: FL-Nelson and WI-Baldwin). For now, donations will not be effective at shifting those races. MO-McCaskill is off the table as well. Rep. Todd Akin has seen to that.
I estimate the current probability of Democratic retention of Senate control as 65%. This is a very rough estimate. It is an increase from the previous estimate of 52%, mainly because of Missouri. Anything between 20% and 80% should be considered a knife edge.