Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from August 31st, 2012

Looking for the post-RNC bounce?

August 31st, 2012, 2:00pm by Sam Wang

Come back Monday. That’s how long we will take based on Ryan 2012 and Palin 2008. When we do post it will be accurate, unlike single-poll reports. Generally, for updates on Presidential odds, I have advice: stop watching the race for three weeks. I have shown you that day-to-day swings mean nothing until then. And [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President · Senate

Once in a very blue moon

August 31st, 2012, 1:00pm by Sam Wang

For the blue moon, which happens every 2.5-3 years — less often than national elections.

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Tags: Uncategorized

House outlook for 2013 (Take 1)

August 30th, 2012, 12:00pm by Sam Wang

(Welcome, DailyKos and FiveThirtyEight readers.) A long-term outlook based on conditions through mid-August (pre-Ryan/Akin/convention) shows a possible loss of control of the House by Republicans (Democratic takeover, 69% probability). The 2013 seat margin is headed to being narrower in either direction than the current Congress. An election based on today’s conditions would give Democrats 50-51 [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House

Likely governing scenarios for 2013

August 29th, 2012, 5:00pm by Sam Wang

Analysis of Presidential and Senate races gives a current long-term outlook for divided government at 34% probability, 1 in 3. Including the House would make the likelihood even higher. A House prediction will come tomorrow. First, here is a histogram of Senate outcomes given current polls and a shift of up to +/-3% (uniform distribution) [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · House · President · Senate

What political science models really tell us

August 28th, 2012, 2:10pm by Sam Wang

Political science models should not be interpreted as predictions because they are often wrong. The models are research tools to help political scientists in their search for rules that govern behavior. Many of you keep asking about the latest econometric “model” that some political scientists at the University of Colorado have cooked up. Most of [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Testing the Presidential predictor

August 27th, 2012, 11:49pm by Sam Wang

(Update: If you’re coming here from the Huffington Post piece on the Colorado model, you may want to read my response to it.) The predicted path of a storm can change. Hurricane Isaac was thought to be headed for Tampa (and the GOP convention) until a few days ago. Now it’s headed for New Orleans. [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

Two changes in Senate knife-edge races

August 26th, 2012, 3:53pm by Sam Wang

Thank you for supporting candidates at my ActBlue page. Senate polls have shifted, and I am adding two Democratic candidates who have entered the knife-edge range (CT-Murphy and MT-Tester). Four more races are still of prime importance in Senate control: ND-Heitkamp, IN-Donnelly, VA-Kaine, and MA-Warren. For example, this article outlines the surprisingly strong candidacy of Heidi [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · Senate

Ryan 2012 v. Palin 2008

August 26th, 2012, 7:05am by Sam Wang

An obvious comparison is to ask how Ryan performed compared with Sarah Palin, another running-mate intended to be a game-changer. As you can see, a major advantage of the Meta-analysis is that it allows high-resolution tracking over time. This kind of precision is hard to achieve even with national polls, probably because there are fewer [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · 2012 Election · President

Hurricane Ryan passes. Duration: one news cycle

August 24th, 2012, 11:59pm by Sam Wang

Take one last look at the Ryan bounce. I’d say it’s reached its peak. Whatever comes next will be obliterated by the transient effects of the two upcoming conventions. Think of this graph as storm tracking. Hurricane Ryan has passed just in time for us to get a good look at Tropical Storms RNC and [...]

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Tags: 2012 Election · President

A better August for Romney

August 24th, 2012, 8:27am by Sam Wang

(Update: Posting updated at end.) There was a big load of polls yesterday. Our Meta-analysis distills it. The bottom line: the Ryan bounce seems to have peaked at a considerable 3.0-3.6 percentage points, though Obama retains a lead equivalent to 1.8%.

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Tags: 2012 Election · President