Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

A GOP primary for Democrats (!) to donate

July 10th, 2012, 4:54pm by Sam Wang


As I’ve written before, if you are looking for wise ways to deploy your campaign donations, an effective strategy is to look for races where the outcome is on a knife edge, then give to push the probability in one direction or the other. For the moment, that’s not the Presidential race, where Obama is clearly ahead.

Last week I pointed out (as did Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) a few days later) that control of the Senate could flip in November. Current polls support this view. Therefore close Senate races are good places to donate, whether you are a Republican or a Democrat.

There’s a clever variation on this theme: the Wisconsin GOP primary for U.S. Senate – even if you are a Democrat.¬†Why? This is a hotly contested primary. One candidate, Tommy Thompson, would be favored in the general election. The other, Eric Hovde, would not. Therefore you could influence the race by giving to Hovde if you are a Democrat, or Thompson if you are a Republican. This, in turn, would measurably influence the odds of your party controlling the Senate next year.

Get to it!

Tags: 2012 Election

One Comment so far ↓

  • Robin Colgrove

    I watched this blog closely in the 2008 elections and used the analyses to decide to contribute and do phone calls for the Al Franken campaign (and you know how that turned out!). Tonight in my town, Needham, MA, I was out canvassing for Elizabeth Warren. If you are looking for a knife-edge race to put your time and treasure into, here it is!

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