Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from June 30th, 2009

Senate race re-cap

June 30th, 2009, 10:08pm by Sam Wang

Last year I recommended a donation strategy that nearly 400 of you followed to give nearly $45,000 to one side (and an unknown amount to the other side). Now that Al Franken is finally on his way to being Minnesota’s junior senator (by 312 votes, a 0.01% margin), was it a good strategy?

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Tags: 2008 Election

Statistical analysis update from Mebane

June 22nd, 2009, 9:32am by Sam Wang

Here’s the latest update from Walter Mebane of U. Michigan. At this point he is quite confident that fraud occurred. He has kindly made data and R scripts available for the curious.

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Tags: Politics

Voting early and often

June 22nd, 2009, 9:23am by Sam Wang

Iran’s Guardian Council has admitted that apparent turnout exceeded 100% in at least 50 cities. This confirms recent analysis at the University of St. Andrews as well as by David Shor. Inflated voting is the crudest of fraud, cruder than anything implied by my previous post. At this point statistical analysis is interesting for filling [...]

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Tags: Politics

Analyzing Iran 2009: Part 2, The Official Returns

June 21st, 2009, 2:56am by Sam Wang

Current events have completely overwhelmed the relevance of any statistical analysis. But a critical look can still point us toward a better understanding of what happened on Election Day. Analysis of fraud in Iran 2009 is an unfolding story. In this post I focus on Election Day returns themselves, which suggest: Votes may have been, [...]

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Tags: Politics

Iranian presidential debates

June 19th, 2009, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

On June 2-8, one-on-one debates were held between pairs of major candidates. As I posted earlier, these could have shifted opinion. One reader writes: People watched all of the debates very carefully and the result was actually very bad for AhmadiNejad…[I] am saying that as an Iranian based on what I saw and heard from [...]

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Tags: Politics

Analyzing Iran 2009: Part 1, Pre-election polls

June 18th, 2009, 11:13pm by Sam Wang

Updated with a third possible reason for the discrepancy. -Sam At a minimum, hundreds of statistically minded people are poring over Iranian election data (see my previous post and these posts). Sorry for my slow start…but let’s roll. Three general categories of data are currently available for validating the Iranian election: (1) pre-election polls, (2) [...]

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Tags: Politics

Statistical evidence for Iranian election fraud?

June 18th, 2009, 8:56am by Sam Wang

In the wake of continuing turmoil over the disputed Iranian election, enough information is available to do some validation of the results. There are several types of information – examples can be seen here and here. This type of data can be used to look for fraud. Crude fraud can be found by applying Benford’s [...]

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Tags: Politics