Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

The end for Coleman?

January 23rd, 2009, 9:27am by Sam Wang


Two recent events suggest that Coleman’s contest of the Minnesota Senate election result is nearing an end.

First, his last best hope, a motion to have 12,000 rejected absentee ballots brought into the Election Contest Court, has been denied. These ballots contained 654 ballots selected by the Coleman team for re-examination. Extensive coverage is here at The Uptake, official court documents are here, and color commentary by blogger WineRev is here.

The re-examination of all 12,000 ballots seemed to be a desperation move anyway. It is not known how they will divide. Coleman needs to win them by a margin of 226 or greater. These ballots would need to break at least 51-49 in Coleman’s favor to give him any chance at all. (This is essential: if they are drawn from a 50-50 sample, the odds against picking up 226 votes is 53,000-1 against.) But rejected ballots are more likely to favor Democrats, so it’s not clear that somehow de-rejecting these ballots will do much. But the court ruling takes a step toward closing even that window.

Second, Norm Coleman has accepted a job with the Republican Jewish Coalition, suggesting that he is under financial strain and/or is preparing for a likely final defeat.

Tags: 2008 Election

No Comments so far ↓

Like gas stations in rural Texas after 10 pm, comments are closed.