Comments on: Franken wins by 225 (and our contest winners…)

By: Hank Gillette

Hank Gillette — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 08:23:11 +0000

Since I twice called Silver’s number a guess, I’m not sure why you feel compelled to reassert that it was a guess, as though I had called it something else.

I’d be happy to put the same effort into finding reasons why he was further off, since the only effort I put into the other remark was remembering that he made his guess well before the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled that at least some of the rejected absentee ballots would be counted. Nothing comes to mind.

I quite agree that the methods Silver used in the Presidential election were not that useful for projecting the results of the Minnesota Senate election, because there were simply too many unknowns.

So why did you gratuitously point out the inaccuracy of Silver’s guess while neglecting to mention that your guess was 15th out of 16 entries?

By: Sam Wang

Sam Wang — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 03:46:08 +0000

I believe that you are cherry-picking. Are you willing to show equal diligence in looking for reasons why he was even farther off? Motivated reasoning is a topic that I wrote about in the New York Times. The point of that article was that we inadvertently maintain false beliefs in the face of mixed or contradictory evidence, partly by discounting evidence we don't like. Sorry to belabor the point, but the error bar on the estimate was so large that the fairest word for it is "guess." Arguments that leave out a consideration of uncertainties are unsound. My understanding is that he later backed off from such showboating, which is laudable. It would be good for fans to follow suit.

By: Hank Gillette

Hank Gillette — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 18:02:00 +0000

I think it is only fair to point out that Nate’s +27 guess did not include the possibility of additional absentee ballots being counted. Franken’s lead before adding in the additional absentee votes was what, +49?

Considering the error margin he indicated with this guess, I think -22 is pretty close.

By: omar

omar — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 23:17:56 +0000

I am happy to have been within an order of magnitude.

And, as it happens, I received Sam’s book for Christmas anyway!

By: Sam Wang

Sam Wang — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:35:17 +0000

Good point, Mr./Ms. Ipsum. Post edited accordingly.

By: Lorem

Lorem — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:38:34 +0000

Isn’t first runner-up in fact Bob X, as abs(250-225) < abs(137-225)? Although the cosmological guess definitely wins points for being the most fun.

By: Vicki Vance

Vicki Vance — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:25:09 +0000

That’s wonderful, Sam. See, I told you I could guess just as well as the next guy. I really look forward to the book – hope it will be signed by the famous author.

By: Nicholas J. Alcock

Nicholas J. Alcock — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 22:53:32 +0000

Dear Sam,
I was very sceptical about your statistical ability to pick tied races. However,
given your ability to pick the Sn Mn winner
can you explain why you failed to do this in
the Pres Indiana contest?

By: bugjackblue

bugjackblue — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:49:45 +0000

That’s Tom Davis in the ripped white shirt, Franken’s comedy partner from SNL and a MUCH funnier Tom Davis that that pathetically unfunny hack from VA.

By: Patrik

Patrik — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:14:29 +0000

Not that Tom Davis, this one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Davis_(comedian)

This the politician: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_M._Davis