Princeton Election Consortium

John McCain had a good weekend. He had sharp upticks in his support in close states including Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. (Actually, PA went up mid-last week -Sam) However, it doesn’t appear to be enough. At the current rate, he might be caught up…by Thanksgiving.

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Robin writes: “As the [EV] distributions get ever spikier, they start to look like NMR spectra, with the state-flipped pairs analogous to spin-spin splitting!” Wow.

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The national two-candidate margin is currently Obama leading by 7.0 +/- 0.9% (median+/-SEM, n=7, 10/31-11/2). There are between 1 and 6% “undecideds.” Can they wreak havoc anywhere? Today, Charles Franklin at Pollster.com writes about how undecideds have broken since 1948. These data can give us outer bounds on what may happen this year. Bottom line: [...]

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The Daily News asked me for a piece written in their style. So… “[The Bradley effect] could wind up stealing the fizz from Obama’s Election Night champagne.” Hey, it was either that or write about topless muggers, or whatever else makes the front page on normal days. By the way, the counterpoint piece is good [...]

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I’m taking requests for analysis to do between now and Tuesday morning.

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The Senate snapshot is in the right sidebar. It probably won’t change much by Tuesday. Here’s the full documentation…

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For those of you out pounding the pavement, manning the phone banks, and driving vans, here are some figures on how much each of those votes is worth. If that’s not you…well, why isn’t that you?

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By current standards the McCain campaign is not spending that much on polling – only $1.1 million since July. During that time the Obama campaign spent almost four times as much. Maybe that’s why on Friday, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis felt able to write a memo containing plainly absurd statements such as “Our numbers [...]

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Most of you are interested in predictions of Tuesday’s outcome based on state polls. This is an area that started in 2000, acquired cult status in 2004 (WSJ link and alternate), and went fully mainstream in 2008. But before that, political scientists took their stab at the prediction problem. How do all the methods compare? [...]

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