Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from November 3rd, 2008

McCain finishing strong?

November 3rd, 2008, 8:41pm by Sam Wang

John McCain had a good weekend. He had sharp upticks in his support in close states including Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. (Actually, PA went up mid-last week -Sam) However, it doesn’t appear to be enough. At the current rate, he might be caught up…by Thanksgiving.

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Tags: 2008 Election

When nerds attack!

November 3rd, 2008, 5:01pm by Sam Wang

Robin writes: “As the [EV] distributions get ever spikier, they start to look like NMR spectra, with the state-flipped pairs analogous to spin-spin splitting!” Wow.

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Tags: 2008 Election

How will the last holdouts break?

November 3rd, 2008, 2:45pm by Sam Wang

The national two-candidate margin is currently Obama leading by 7.0 +/- 0.9% (median+/-SEM, n=7, 10/31-11/2). There are between 1 and 6% “undecideds.” Can they wreak havoc anywhere? Today, Charles Franklin at Pollster.com writes about how undecideds have broken since 1948. These data can give us outer bounds on what may happen this year. Bottom line: [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Daily News – hold the fizz?

November 3rd, 2008, 8:04am by Sam Wang

The Daily News asked me for a piece written in their style. So… “[The Bradley effect] could wind up stealing the fizz from Obama’s Election Night champagne.” Hey, it was either that or write about topless muggers, or whatever else makes the front page on normal days. By the way, the counterpoint piece is good [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Any requests?

November 2nd, 2008, 10:30pm by Sam Wang

I’m taking requests for analysis to do between now and Tuesday morning.

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Tags: 2008 Election

Senate snapshot: 59 D/I, 41 R

November 2nd, 2008, 8:00pm by Sam Wang

The Senate snapshot is in the right sidebar. It probably won’t change much by Tuesday. Here’s the full documentation…

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Tags: 2008 Election

The power of getting out the vote

November 2nd, 2008, 5:28pm by Sam Wang

For those of you out pounding the pavement, manning the phone banks, and driving vans, here are some figures on how much each of those votes is worth. If that’s not you…well, why isn’t that you?

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Tags: 2008 Election

An under-the-radar runaway for Obama?

November 2nd, 2008, 10:00am by Sam Wang

By current standards the McCain campaign is not spending that much on polling – only $1.1 million since July. During that time the Obama campaign spent almost four times as much. Maybe that’s why on Friday, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis felt able to write a memo containing plainly absurd statements such as “Our numbers [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

A brief history of Presidential prediction

November 1st, 2008, 10:37pm by Sam Wang

Most of you are interested in predictions of Tuesday’s outcome based on state polls. This is an area that started in 2000, acquired cult status in 2004 (WSJ link and alternate), and went fully mainstream in 2008. But before that, political scientists took their stab at the prediction problem. How do all the methods compare? [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election