Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from November 6th, 2008

No Bradley effect, but…

November 6th, 2008, 11:13pm by Sam Wang

Obama gained support nearly everywhere compared with John Kerry in 2004: But in some places the movement was 20 points or more in the other direction. Appalachians and Okies A lot of residents of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee sure didn’t like Obama. Imagine that. Click the map for the NYT interactive slide show.

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Tags: 2008 Election

A pause from our usual programming

November 5th, 2008, 4:59pm by Sam Wang

I realize that many readers do not share my politics. I’ve attempted to use my judgments, but not my preferences, in the analysis – perhaps with success. My intention was to provide any thinking person with relatively transparent analysis of polling data. So I was pleased to receive this note: “Although our politics are different, [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

A first look at post-election evaluation

November 5th, 2008, 5:58am by Sam Wang

Good morning! First, congratulations to President-elect Barack Obama. It’s a historic day. His campaign inspired millions. But also condolences for his grandmother’s passing – what a loss, and at what a time. Let’s take a quick look at the performance of the Meta-Analysis and my other predictions. Preliminarily, things look quite good. The EV total. [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Election returns thread

November 4th, 2008, 7:30pm by Sam Wang

Here’s a thread to discuss returns, topics from the Geek’s Guide, and more. 7:59 pm: Watching returns on ABC. TV is an amazingly bad way to get returns. Go to Yahoo.com or dailykos.com. (In the end CNN is quite good.) It’s hard to rely on most states’ returns because partial returns are often so misleading. [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

The wisdom of crowds of crowds

November 4th, 2008, 4:27pm by Sam Wang

Is it time for Meta-Meta-Analysis? A consistent answer emerges!

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Tags: 2008 Election

The cheat sheet (a.k.a. Geek’s Guide) is here!

November 4th, 2008, 11:11am by Sam Wang

Confused about what to watch for tonight? Read the cheat sheet! [PDF]. I’ll be using the Geek’s Guide to tracking national returns – which races to watch, a way to identify polling biases, and more. (Note: the map is the estimated mode of the distribution, but the topline estimate is the median.)

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Tags: 2008 Election

Final predictions for 2008

November 4th, 2008, 5:06am by Sam Wang

The data are in. It’s time for predictions – with error bands.

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Tags: 2008 Election

Make your own personal prediction!

November 4th, 2008, 12:30am by Sam Wang

(A prediction from Bob Vanderbei. Enter yours in comments!)

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Tags: 2008 Election

Accounting for poll biases

November 3rd, 2008, 11:57pm by Sam Wang

Here’s your tool for handling many biases: last-minute swings, the Bradley effect, the cell phone effect – and others as well.

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Tags: 2008 Election

InTrade inefficiencies

November 3rd, 2008, 11:06pm by Sam Wang

Electronic markets such as InTrade are driven by polls and arrive at similar probabilities. But a few exceptions offer opportunities.

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Tags: 2008 Election