Princeton Election Consortium

Obama gained support nearly everywhere compared with John Kerry in 2004: But in some places the movement was 20 points or more in the other direction. Appalachians and Okies A lot of residents of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Tennessee sure didn’t like Obama. Imagine that. Click the map for the NYT interactive slide show.

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I realize that many readers do not share my politics. I’ve attempted to use my judgments, but not my preferences, in the analysis – perhaps with success. My intention was to provide any thinking person with relatively transparent analysis of polling data. So I was pleased to receive this note: “Although our politics are different, [...]

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Good morning! First, congratulations to President-elect Barack Obama. It’s a historic day. His campaign inspired millions. But also condolences for his grandmother’s passing – what a loss, and at what a time. Let’s take a quick look at the performance of the Meta-Analysis and my other predictions. Preliminarily, things look quite good. The EV total. [...]

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(A prediction from Bob Vanderbei. Enter yours in comments!)

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Electronic markets such as InTrade are driven by polls and arrive at similar probabilities. But a few exceptions offer opportunities.

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