Comments on: Race and voting http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/25/race-and-voting/ A first draft of electoral history Fri, 06 May 2011 06:45:04 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.4 By: Richard http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/25/race-and-voting/comment-page-1/#comment-2724 Richard Thu, 27 Nov 2008 01:13:15 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2844#comment-2724 The Good News: The Final Election Model projected an expected 365.3 EV for Obama. http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm 2008 Election Model A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Updated: Nov. 3, 2008 TruthIsAll FINAL PROJECTION: Obama wins by 76-64m votes; 367-171 EV (median); 365.3 expected; 53-45% vote share The Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today – and that current polls reflect the true vote. The model projects that Obama will win the Electoral vote by 367-171 and the True Vote by 76-64m. The final projected vote share is Obama 53.1- McCain 44.9%- Other 2.0%. The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%. In May, the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71-59m (54.1-44.7%). For the 2008 EC to match the EM, its estimate of returning 60.5m returning Kerry and 51.6m Bush voters had to be accurate. The EC used 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares to calculate the projections. In other words, the 2008 EC and EM confirmed that Kerry won a landslide (see below). The bad news: We are both wrong. We had the Recorded Vote right but not the True Vote Obama had to have done better than the 365EV and 53%. Here's why: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008NEPScenarios.htm The Good News:

The Final Election Model projected an expected 365.3 EV for Obama.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

2008 Election Model

A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

Updated: Nov. 3, 2008

TruthIsAll

FINAL PROJECTION:

Obama wins by 76-64m votes; 367-171 EV (median); 365.3 expected; 53-45% vote share

The Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today – and that current polls reflect the true vote. The model projects that Obama will win the Electoral vote by 367-171 and the True Vote by 76-64m. The final projected vote share is Obama 53.1- McCain 44.9%- Other 2.0%. The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%.

In May, the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71-59m (54.1-44.7%).

For the 2008 EC to match the EM, its estimate of returning 60.5m returning Kerry and 51.6m Bush voters had to be accurate.

The EC used 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares to calculate the projections.

In other words, the 2008 EC and EM confirmed that Kerry won a landslide (see below).

The bad news:
We are both wrong. We had the Recorded Vote right but not the True Vote

Obama had to have done better than the 365EV and 53%.

Here’s why:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008NEPScenarios.htm

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