He squeaks in in Georgia and Missouri.
But 353 will do, really it will.

(I also have an entry in the Princeton Survey study, made weeks ago. We’ll see how that does.)

Obama 397
McCain 141

Obama takes NC, Indiana, Georgia, ND, Montana, and the Omaha electoral district (NE-02).

Senate:
Dems 56
Reps 41
Ind 2
N/A 1 (Georgia runoff)

House:
Dems 263
Reps 172

On Oct. 29th, I made my “final prediction” of 53% and 375EVs for Obama, 61 Senate seats, and +34 in the House. I might have been a bit too optimistic about the Senate and the House. We’ll see.

Going back further:

On June 20th, I had e-mailed the same people, noting the strong historical correlation between presidential election results and the change in the national unemployment rate in the second quarter of an election year.

Here is what I wrote:

“Unless there’s some freak statistical artifact in June, I think this month’s economic numbers are going to be a disaster. It’s no wonder that my favorite electoral prediction sites, be they Democratic, Republican, or neutral, are all showing Obama with 300 to 350 electoral votes. States you never would have dreamed being competitive for Democrats are turning. Get this: McCain leads Obama by one ONE POINT in Georgia, and the latest Newsweek poll has him up by 15 points nationwide.”

On July 4, after the June unemployment number came out, I wrote this:

“The June unemployment statistics were released yesterday. The national unemployment rate stayed at 5.5%, which means unemployment started 2Q at 5.1% and ended 2Q at 5.5%. By historical standards, that’s a big increase and portends a significant victory for Barack Obama this fall.

“The Republicans know how bad it is, too. At the moment, I’d say they’re set to lose everything Bush lost to Kerry in 2004, plus: OH, IA, CO, NM, NH and VA. If he does that, it’s 306-232 electoral votes. Obama has reasonable chances in IN, MO, NV, and FL. If he does those, it’s 360-178.

“If it’s really big, he’ll win some or all of the following: NC, MT, ND, AK, and GA. That would be 399-139. Obama is getting ready for a big victory. Maybe that’s why he’s thinking of giving his nomination speech in a 75,000-seat stadium rather than a mere auditorium.

“The Republicans know they’re in big trouble, which is why they’re flailing around so desperately trying to find angles of attack. I think it’s a matter of damage control. The way it looks now, the Republicans will lose at least 20 House seats and at least 5 Senate seats, in addition to the presidency. How much higher their losses go will be a matter of how well Obama runs his campaign.”

Calculating my very most favorite October thing in the world to calculate, that makes a median of Obama 364 +/-9 EV. Only a little above the Median EV Estimator, and equal to my Obama +1% prediction and to Bob’s prediction.

This is interesting. I thought commenters around here had become a bunch of godless, Muslim, Rev. Wright-following, Ayers-hugging, toy-sharing, anti-mavericky non-mavericks. Yet amazingly, that all adds up to only +1% bias.

Although I keep wavering on Missouri.

I think the ‘coal’ comments from Palin yesterday is going to affect that super tight race (see, this is the non-quantitative analysis that needs to be included beyond just the numbers). Florida is simply a guess that it will go to McCain – he’s been closing there and that’s a tough state for the dems.

All reports are of a huge turnout and a lot of enthusiasm, which is good for O-Bam and bad for J Mac.

I expect McCain to win OH, FL, IN, MO, NC, ND, GA and AZ

Obama will win PA, CO, NM and IA and hold NH (by less than the polls show)

No call on VA or NV

Obama at 273-291 EVs and by approximately 2% overall.

Of course, the optimistic part of me REALLY hopes I’m HORRIBLY wrong and its an Obama landslide-I would SO enjoy that.