Comments on: The wisdom of crowds of crowds http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/ A first draft of electoral history Thu, 12 Nov 2009 02:35:25 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-2095 Sam Wang Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:44:44 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-2095 Readers, we cannot rule out the hypothesis that as a group, you are discerning and rational evaluators of polling data. Your median (and my prediction) win! Readers, we cannot rule out the hypothesis that as a group, you are discerning and rational evaluators of polling data. Your median (and my prediction) win!

]]> By: alistair Connor http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1993 alistair Connor Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:23:39 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1993 I'm picking a popular vote margin of 6 to 7 %, and 375 electoral votes. Though my favourite outcome includes all of IN, MO, AZ,GA : tempted to add ND, but 400 is such a nice round number. I’m picking a popular vote margin of 6 to 7 %, and 375 electoral votes.

Though my favourite outcome includes all of IN, MO, AZ,GA : tempted to add ND, but 400 is such a nice round number.

]]> By: Gene Glass http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1992 Gene Glass Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:18:15 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1992 Prof. Wang: Thanks for your efforts. A beacon of light in a world of darkness. Prof. Wang:
Thanks for your efforts. A beacon of light in a world of darkness.

]]> By: Frank http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1988 Frank Tue, 04 Nov 2008 23:32:12 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1988 "My mode prediction, in which I force all leaner states to a single outcome, is 353 EV. I favor this outcome."--Sam Wang How did you get 353 in that way? States with a positive median margin total 338. You can't get the remaining 15 all from the ties: IN (11), MO (11), ND (3). My pick was Of the states with negative margins, the closest is NC, worth 15. This was actually my pick: 353 = Kerry states + IA, NM, NV, CO, OH, VA, FL, NC; with the ties in your data being resolved in McCain's favor. “My mode prediction, in which I force all leaner states to a single outcome, is 353 EV. I favor this outcome.”–Sam Wang

How did you get 353 in that way? States with a positive median margin total 338. You can’t get the remaining 15 all from the ties: IN (11), MO (11), ND (3). My pick was Of the states with negative margins, the closest is NC, worth 15. This was actually my pick: 353 = Kerry states + IA, NM, NV, CO, OH, VA, FL, NC; with the ties in your data being resolved in McCain’s favor.

]]> By: Glenn http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1982 Glenn Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:00:52 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1982 Already the shenanigans are starting at the polls. Prof. Wang: Have you figured all known voting schemes as variables into your analysis? Already the shenanigans are starting at the polls. Prof. Wang: Have you figured all known voting schemes as variables into your analysis?

]]> By: bjorn akerman http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1981 bjorn akerman Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:55:02 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1981 The outlier explanation I can see. Thanks. The outlier explanation I can see. Thanks.

]]> By: Mark http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1980 Mark Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:54:30 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1980 Thanks for your analysis, Prof. Wang. You have turned the dial up to 11 with the release of your new cheat sheet. I am hoping you are wrong about the MN senate race. The strong independent candidate (Barkley) could make this one difficult to predict. Thanks for your analysis, Prof. Wang. You have turned the dial up to 11 with the release of your new cheat sheet.

I am hoping you are wrong about the MN senate race. The strong independent candidate (Barkley) could make this one difficult to predict.

]]> By: bjorn akerman http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1979 bjorn akerman Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:50:04 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1979 Secondly, I can't stop worrying about these long lines at the voting booths. In 2004 more than 100 000 voters turned back only in Ohio (according to the Guardian) and did not cast their vote because the lines were too long. This year it will only be worse. What's that gonna do to your medians? Secondly, I can’t stop worrying about these long lines at the voting booths. In 2004 more than 100 000 voters turned back only in Ohio (according to the Guardian) and did not cast their vote because the lines were too long. This year it will only be worse. What’s that gonna do to your medians?

]]> By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1978 Sam Wang Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:43:18 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1978 Rejects outliers, and in the case of the Electoral College is usually a real outcome. Rejects outliers, and in the case of the Electoral College is usually a real outcome.

]]> By: bjorn akerman http://election.princeton.edu/2008/11/04/meta-meta-analysis-or-the-wisdom-of-punchy-markets/comment-page-1/#comment-1976 bjorn akerman Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:42:24 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2373#comment-1976 Why this faith in the median? What is your motivatition as a statician? Pure and simple question from Sweden Why this faith in the median? What is your motivatition as a statician?
Pure and simple question from Sweden

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