Confused about what to watch for tonight? Read the cheat sheet! [PDF]. I’ll be using the Geek’s Guide to tracking national returns – which races to watch, a way to identify polling biases, and more. (Note: the map is the estimated mode of the distribution, but the topline estimate is the median.)
The Geek’s Guide contains what I think is interesting or suspenseful about tonight’s races. In it I list
- My lowest-error-rate guess for the eventual electoral outcome (the mode, not the Median EV Estimator);
- Key states to watch early in the evening;
- Ways to identify polling biases such as the Bradley effect;
- One key close Senate race and one key Presidential race to watch; and
- A list of poll closing times.
In the Presidential race, I’ll be watching the contests in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and … New Hampshire. What’s that? Why New Hampshire? You’ll have to read the Geek’s Guide.
Thanks to Josh, Maury, and David R. for vetting a previous version of the document, and to Larry Allen for the poll closing time information. See the comment thread for the inevitable errata.
P.S. There’s some experimental tiebreaking secret sauce on the last page. Depending on the size of the bias, by the evening’s end it will look clever or stupid. All I will say is that its only ingredients are state polling data and MATLAB.