Final predictions for 2008

The data are in. It’s time for predictions – with error bands. PRESIDENT Electoral vote: The final polling snapshot is Obama 352 EV, McCain 186 EV. The confidence bands are 68% [337,367] Obama EV, 95% [316,378] Obama EV. (Note added, Nov. 24: The snapshot was not stable. Variance minimization identifies longer periods for averaging, which … Continue reading Final predictions for 2008