Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Meta-Margins for control: House D+1.0% Senate R+4.2% Find key elections near you!

Entries from October 2nd, 2008

Instant debate reaction: Biden wins

October 2nd, 2008, 11:28pm by Sam Wang

I call it for Biden, who got better and better over time. Palin herself might be off the table as an issue. I also think we won’t be seeing much more of her this month. That puts us back in the usual position of the vice-presidential nominee not mattering. I might expect some change in […]

[

Tags: 2008 Election

Interview Sarah Palin!

October 2nd, 2008, 12:30pm by Sam Wang

This is interesting: a Markov chain-based model of Sarah Palin’s interview answers. It uses her existing public statements to construct a computer model of what words/phrases would be likely to follow one another, then uses the model to generate random answers. It’s relatively coherent. Ask a question! Some ideas.

[

Tags: 2008 Election

Will the remaining debates matter?

October 2nd, 2008, 10:54am by Sam Wang

The EV estimator has reached its highest level since July. The Meta-Margin is nearly 4%. Once a few stragglers come in – notably Missouri and New Hampshire – the picture will be reasonably current. The tactical benefits to McCain of the Celebrity ad (and other August attacks) and VP pick Sarah Palin have been fully […]

[

Tags: 2008 Election

For locals: a talk on the Meta-Analysis

October 2nd, 2008, 9:00am by Sam Wang

Tomorrow (Friday) at noon, I’ll give a talk in Kosuke Imai and Dustin Tingley’s political methodology seminar. If you’re nearby, you’re welcome to attend. Of course, the math will all be included. The blurb is here (PDF). Update: Here’s another local event, happening next Tuesday: a panel on the reliability of state polls featuring both […]

[

Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis · Princeton

Obama’s continuing rise, and a criticism from Silver

October 1st, 2008, 12:38pm by Sam Wang

The EV estimator is continuing its sharp rise (now Obama 322 EV, McCain 216 EV). It is catching up with the increase in support for Obama, which has been maintained after the first debate. National polls are now at a median of Obama +5.5 +/- 0.8% (n=12, Sept. 25-30; updated 12:53am). The EV estimator will […]

[

Tags: 2008 Election · Site News