Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from October 18th, 2008

Polling geeks in the news

October 18th, 2008, 10:53am by Sam Wang

In today’s San Francisco Chronicle. I’m wedged in there between Mark Blumenthal and Nate Silver.

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Tags: 2008 Election

The economics of reporting polls

October 17th, 2008, 11:49am by Sam Wang

The only thing happening in the Meta-Analysis is a slight, slow widening of Obama’s lead. Some of you want to know about individual polls, such as a recent Gallup national poll showing Obama ahead by only +2% (standard likely-voter model) or +6% (high-turnout model). I confess that I tend to ignore individual polls because of [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Senate and House gains

October 15th, 2008, 8:03pm by Sam Wang

Tonight’s debate is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on the race. At this point a major swing would require an externality such as a miraculous healing of the financial markets. Who will bring up Bill Ayers? I’m guessing Bob Schieffer, as a favor to McCain. (I was wrong. McCain went there first.) Another remaining [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Campaign innumeracy

October 15th, 2008, 12:40pm by Sam Wang

The Median EV Estimator is boring these days because so few states are in play. The mode, which is at Obama 364 EV McCain 174 EV, contains an amazing 37% of the distribution. Near Obama’s red ceiling, the race is stable: the mode is the same even if 2% is added to Obama-McCain margins across [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Get on the bus

October 14th, 2008, 7:00am by Sam Wang

Many have answered my call to support knife-edge races. It’s a good start! As a neuroscientist, I know that one of the most salient emotions is fear. Here’s some news for you: Patrick Ruffini at The Next Right is exhorting the RNC to redirect $15 million away from the failing McCain campaign and into marginal [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Nobels

October 13th, 2008, 11:40am by Sam Wang

Today, Paul Krugman, professor of economics and international affairs here at Princeton, won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on international trade. Here’s his quirky, fascinating essay on how he thinks. Congratulations, Paul! The Chemistry prize is in an area that touches my research…

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Tags: Princeton

A hard look at reality, and what you should do

October 10th, 2008, 10:43pm by Sam Wang

(Update: In the comments I answer questions. Also see this analysis. -Sam) (Update 2: A major bottom line of this post was to give to key races as detailed on my ActBlue page, or on the other side via the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Thanks to all who gave. -Sam) I’ve noticed a lot of [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Top 10 Web tools for election season

October 10th, 2008, 10:42pm by Sam Wang

Lifehacker has a top 10 list of tools that cover issue tracking, voter information, and poll-tracking. A great resource!

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Tags: 2008 Election

Knife-edge Senate races

October 10th, 2008, 3:07pm by Sam Wang

I see (via DailyKos) that Congressional Quarterly’s ratings of Senate races are coming into line with my prior comments on the races in Minnesota, Oregon, and Georgia. The closest races are where your donations are maximally effective. Democrats, see my ActBlue page. Republicans, NRSC.

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Tags: 2008 Election

The collapsing distribution

October 10th, 2008, 12:22pm by Sam Wang

I love the daily commentary by Andrew Tanenbaum at Electoral-vote.com. His analysis hits a sweet spot of providing one layer of judicious data analysis and a daily dose of spot-on commentary that usually hits the key point. His site also contains hidden riches of local race coverage. Today he covers the financial crisis, the threat [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election