Comments on: On Los Angeles radio this morning http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/ A first draft of electoral history Thu, 12 Nov 2009 02:35:25 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1434 Sam Wang Wed, 29 Oct 2008 14:25:03 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1434 Oh, I see. Thanks for pointing that out. The Libertarian candidate Buckley appears reasonable by current standards - well within the range of what Republicans (and even Democrats) say they favor. I can't tell which way his supporters would go in a runoff. It seems that they would still split in favor of Chambliss, but it's hard to tell. In <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/ga/08-ga-sen-ge-cvm.php" rel="nofollow">7 out of the last 10 polls</a>, Chambliss has 50% or more of decided voters. I think the right approach would be to do the following: assume a 70% probability of the two-candidate margin being predictive, then split up the remaining 30% according to an informed guess about Buckley voters. I'll consider doing this for the final estimate. Oh, I see. Thanks for pointing that out.

The Libertarian candidate Buckley appears reasonable by current standards – well within the range of what Republicans (and even Democrats) say they favor. I can’t tell which way his supporters would go in a runoff. It seems that they would still split in favor of Chambliss, but it’s hard to tell.

In 7 out of the last 10 polls, Chambliss has 50% or more of decided voters. I think the right approach would be to do the following: assume a 70% probability of the two-candidate margin being predictive, then split up the remaining 30% according to an informed guess about Buckley voters. I’ll consider doing this for the final estimate.

]]> By: William http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1432 William Wed, 29 Oct 2008 13:36:52 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1432 I'm referring to the Senate election, where the third-party candidate is doing much better. I’m referring to the Senate election, where the third-party candidate is doing much better.

]]> By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1426 Sam Wang Wed, 29 Oct 2008 12:31:46 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1426 I'd be surprised if there were a runoff. Third-party candidate Barr in Georgia is running in the vicinity of 1%, as are third-party candidates everywhere. Since the margin is currently larger and would go to the current leader, McCain, the current calculation seems adequate. I’d be surprised if there were a runoff. Third-party candidate Barr in Georgia is running in the vicinity of 1%, as are third-party candidates everywhere. Since the margin is currently larger and would go to the current leader, McCain, the current calculation seems adequate.

]]> By: William http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1376 William Tue, 28 Oct 2008 05:28:49 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1376 How difficult would it be to include the third-party candidate in Georgia and the probability that no candidate reaches 50%(thus triggering a runoff election)? How difficult would it be to include the third-party candidate in Georgia and the probability that no candidate reaches 50%(thus triggering a runoff election)?

]]> By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1363 Sam Wang Mon, 27 Oct 2008 22:45:42 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1363 <b>Dan M</b> - good point. Note that the net overall effect of a Begich win over Stevens is that a 59-41 split is even more likely. Without Alaska, most of the remaining uncertainty is in Mississippi and Georgia. Dan M – good point. Note that the net overall effect of a Begich win over Stevens is that a 59-41 split is even more likely. Without Alaska, most of the remaining uncertainty is in Mississippi and Georgia.

]]> By: Dan M http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1361 Dan M Mon, 27 Oct 2008 21:50:28 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1361 I think the Alaska senate race just fell off of the knife edge. Even Alaskans can't vote for a convicted felon. Can they? I think the Alaska senate race just fell off of the knife edge. Even Alaskans can’t vote for a convicted felon. Can they?

]]> By: Mark http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1357 Mark Mon, 27 Oct 2008 19:22:11 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1357 Frank, One difference in states like ND and IN is that in 2004 Kerry did not run much of a campaign in those states. Obama has been advertising in ND and IN and has made multiple visits to IN. Meanwhile, McCain has not put much effort into these states which were thought to be safe Republican states. I think this difference in campaign strategies would account for some of the polling difference between 2004 and 2008. In Republican states like OK, WY, UT, ID where Obama has not campaigned, you will see McCain still has 20+ percent margins. Frank,

One difference in states like ND and IN is that in 2004 Kerry did not run much of a campaign in those states. Obama has been advertising in ND and IN and has made multiple visits to IN. Meanwhile, McCain has not put much effort into these states which were thought to be safe Republican states. I think this difference in campaign strategies would account for some of the polling difference between 2004 and 2008. In Republican states like OK, WY, UT, ID where Obama has not campaigned, you will see McCain still has 20+ percent margins.

]]> By: Chris http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1356 Chris Mon, 27 Oct 2008 19:17:15 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1356 Time for one last label on the median EV estimator? A right-leaning group just released a Jeremiah Wright TV spot in 3 battleground states. Time for one last label on the median EV estimator?

A right-leaning group just released a Jeremiah Wright TV spot in 3 battleground states.

]]> By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1354 Sam Wang Mon, 27 Oct 2008 18:53:07 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1354 Sorry, Rachel - that was an oversight. Begich v. Stevens is now listed. Thanks for catching that. Sorry, Rachel – that was an oversight. Begich v. Stevens is now listed. Thanks for catching that.

]]> By: Rachel Findley http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/27/on-los-angeles-radio-this-morning/comment-page-1/#comment-1352 Rachel Findley Mon, 27 Oct 2008 17:01:54 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=2040#comment-1352 I enjoyed the broadcast. I would like to donate through the ActBlue site... but the Alaska Senate race is not on it. I am only partly acting out of rational desire to get the maximum power for my minimal dollars; there's something sweet about the prospect of a Democratic senator from Alaska. I enjoyed the broadcast. I would like to donate through the ActBlue site… but the Alaska Senate race is not on it. I am only partly acting out of rational desire to get the maximum power for my minimal dollars; there’s something sweet about the prospect of a Democratic senator from Alaska.

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