I heard of your website from your friend D. Smith. True or not, your graphs have kept my hope alive for Obama and reduced my anxieties! Let’s hope your prediction will be confirmed. Thanks, Bing

It’s interesting that both poll- and market-based sites (e.g., intrade) claim to be superior, but I have yet to see any solid data to support these claims. Do you know of any that you could point us to?

Mona – Polls specifically ask about Obama and McCain. Polling evidence suggests that Clinton supporters have largely fallen in line. Some were probably Republicans who wanted to vote for a woman, and are back in their party’s fold. If there are any holdouts, there’s no obvious reason for them to be more anonymous than supporters of Barr, Badnarik, Paul, and others. In short, polls are likely to reflect adequately the actual state of the race.

People should look at Aaron’s graph, especially the fact that the Meta-margin is still moving even as the EV estimator has reached a plateau. It’s Obama’s red ceiling.