Comments on: State polls – fresher than you think http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/ A first draft of electoral history Thu, 12 Nov 2009 02:35:25 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1355 Sam Wang Mon, 27 Oct 2008 18:58:39 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1355 Note that pollsters are now asking whether people have voted early, and if so, how they voted. Therefore these 38 people should be sampled in polls. Note that pollsters are now asking whether people have voted early, and if so, how they voted. Therefore these 38 people should be sampled in polls.

]]> By: Bill Dalrymple, Princeton Health Service 1961-1977 http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1353 Bill Dalrymple, Princeton Health Service 1961-1977 Mon, 27 Oct 2008 18:37:35 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1353 Last Thursday, a busload of Black HS seniors drew up at a Ft, Lauderdale voting site and 38 piled out and joined the very long line presumably to vote for Obama. I bet your estimate of 1% downtick of his probable vote in the polls is a low estimate. Last Thursday, a busload of Black HS seniors drew up at a Ft, Lauderdale voting site and 38 piled out and joined the very long line presumably to vote for Obama. I bet your estimate of 1% downtick of his probable vote in the polls is a low estimate.

]]> By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1256 Sam Wang Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:25:45 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1256 Sherry Havelka: no. Sherry Havelka: no.

]]> By: Sherry Havelka http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1253 Sherry Havelka Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:13:40 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1253 Sam, does your current analysis show any hope for McCain in PA? Sam, does your current analysis show any hope for McCain in PA?

]]> By: Mikerw http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1230 Mikerw Wed, 22 Oct 2008 22:12:41 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1230 Great analysis. I suspect that your students wouldn't object to skipping the midterm in the interest of keeping the political junkies fed. Great analysis. I suspect that your students wouldn’t object to skipping the midterm in the interest of keeping the political junkies fed.

]]> By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1229 Sam Wang Wed, 22 Oct 2008 21:28:27 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1229 Mark, regarding the uptick in the Meta-Margin and the downtick in the EV estimator: yes, your interpretation is correct. Mark, regarding the uptick in the Meta-Margin and the downtick in the EV estimator: yes, your interpretation is correct.

]]> By: Mark http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1228 Mark Wed, 22 Oct 2008 21:13:55 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1228 Nope, thumbnail is still different from big plot. Currently we have 4 big spikes, which I assume represent Obama winning both OH and FL, one of the two, and neither. Also the EV estimator went down but meta-margin went up. Does this mean that OH and FL are tossups now, but Obama has a larger lead in other states? Nope, thumbnail is still different from big plot.

Currently we have 4 big spikes, which I assume represent Obama winning both OH and FL, one of the two, and neither.

Also the EV estimator went down but meta-margin went up. Does this mean that OH and FL are tossups now, but Obama has a larger lead in other states?

]]> By: emil ruebe http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1223 emil ruebe Wed, 22 Oct 2008 18:21:59 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1223 Sam, what about postponing the days of "light posting" until after Nov4? I do not think we can afford to miss your analysis before that date. Just tell the supreme court justice you get back to her later on ;) Midterm exams? Nobody will miss them, will they? Sam, what about postponing the days of “light posting” until after Nov4? I do not think we can afford to miss your analysis before that date.
Just tell the supreme court justice you get back to her later on ;)
Midterm exams? Nobody will miss them, will they?

]]> By: Michael S http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1220 Michael S Wed, 22 Oct 2008 14:45:58 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1220 Hans, the y-axis scale is different in the two histograms. The scale difference enhances the spike for the most likely scenario. As mentioned earlier (by me, cough!) the graph is leaning towards a single spike as we get towards election day. Hans, the y-axis scale is different in the two histograms. The scale difference enhances the spike for the most likely scenario.

As mentioned earlier (by me, cough!) the graph is leaning towards a single spike as we get towards election day.

]]> By: Phil http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/comment-page-1/#comment-1217 Phil Wed, 22 Oct 2008 13:46:52 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1944#comment-1217 A downtick in the median doesn't bother me too much when I see the lower limit of the 95% confidence range remains unchanged. A downtick in the median doesn’t bother me too much when I see the lower limit of the 95% confidence range remains unchanged.

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