http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/14/get-on-the-bus/ A first draft of electoral history Thu, 12 Nov 2009 02:35:25 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/14/get-on-the-bus/comment-page-1/#comment-1091 Sam Wang Tue, 14 Oct 2008 15:51:31 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=1831#comment-1091 Questions on voting problems such as fraud were addressed in the previous post. Relevant to this, it is worthwhile to note that results in 2000 and 2004 reflected pre-election state polls almost perfectly. For example, my poll-based EV estimator in 2004 (left sidebar) showed a small but consistent Bush lead for most of October 2004. Taken in the aggregate, state polls have been a very accurate predictor of final outcome. Questions on voting problems such as fraud were addressed in the previous post. Relevant to this, it is worthwhile to note that results in 2000 and 2004 reflected pre-election state polls almost perfectly. For example, my poll-based EV estimator in 2004 (left sidebar) showed a small but consistent Bush lead for most of October 2004. Taken in the aggregate, state polls have been a very accurate predictor of final outcome.

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