Poll UpdatesI’ve now started making “Purple Poll” and “Red/Blue Poll” maps using poll-data from RealClearPolitics. I hope to update the maps on an almost daily basis between now and the election. You can see the maps at http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2008/. -Bob Vanderbei
Tags: 2008 Election · Princeton
Andrew says there was “a routing problem this morning between the University and quite a few outside websites — a split in the internet, if you will.” For the next EV estimator update, check back at noon…
Biden v. Palin drew 70 million viewers, one-third more than Obama v. McCain. VP debates usually don’t matter, but I wondered… Read more »
Tomorrow (Friday) at noon, I’ll give a talk in Kosuke Imai and Dustin Tingley’s political methodology seminar. If you’re nearby, you’re welcome to attend. Of course, the math will all be included. The blurb is here (PDF).
Update: Here’s another local event, happening next Tuesday: a panel on the reliability of state polls featuring both pollsters and academics, including Andrew Gelman, author of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State. I hear the panel will be webcast. If so I’ll post a link.
Archive for Meta-Analysis Thread »
Nice work.
1) Perhaps a more neutral shade – like cross-hatched yellow – would have been better than stark black for the no-poll state? You want them to recede into the background and highlight the states with data, not the other way around.
2) That the US map is mostly purple (and very similar in shade) tells us something…but it also obscures which states have trended which way. Perhaps another map that slightly more exaggerates the color differences (eg, a 35%/75% polling result forcing the top-bottom on the red-blue portion of the color scale) would be helpful – in effect, converting your equilateral color triangle to an isosceles one.
can you really trust “Real Cherry-picked Polls” after that article Nate wrote about them?
Hm.
I think RCP isn’t that bad. That’s a tempest in a teapot.