Many of you won’t get this joke by Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight…
Entries from September 4th, 2008
Assessing the effect of the bounce [currently Obama 324, McCain 214]
September 4th, 2008, 12:19pm by Sam Wang
We are at the end of several very eventful weeks. The finale is, of course, tonight: McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention (and a pre-rebuttal by Obama on The O’Reilly Factor). National polls will come in over the weekend. Here’s a tool to help you interpret them.
Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized
InTrade and Palin (again)
September 2nd, 2008, 10:59am by Sam Wang
InTrade has a new political contract: Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election, now trading at 12.0. Buy or sell? I’m thinking buy. (Update: strong buy.) (Update 2: That speech got the base excited – indeed, it may end up being the highlight of the convention. And she established [...]
Tags: Uncategorized
National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)
September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang
It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and [...]
Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized
