Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from September 9th, 2008

Palin’s image with women

September 9th, 2008, 8:10am by Sam Wang

A correspondent wanted to know if I had information on how John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin plays with women. Saying anything about Palin’s positives/negatives is difficult during the bounce. For now, a far larger divide than gender is marital status – marrieds prefer McCain, unmarrieds prefer Obama. That’s a bigger story than the absence [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Post-convention national polls: 9-10 point bounce for McCain

September 8th, 2008, 1:42pm by Sam Wang

Eight weekend polls are out with all respondents reached after McCain’s speech, the last GOP convention event. The median margin is McCain ahead of Obama by 2.0 +/- 1.2 %. This margin can be used to adjust the state-polls-only EV estimate given above. The adjusted EV estimate is a near-reversal: McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 [...]

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Tags: Site News · Uncategorized

When game-changing events collide

September 7th, 2008, 9:01am by Sam Wang

(Fark.com readers, welcome. Try the Camembert. Zut alors!) Nate Silver has an interesting post on cracking a tracking poll. The goal is to take Gallup’s 3-day rolling averages and extract the 1-day data. The last two weeks are worth analyzing this way because so many potentially game-changing events have occurred. However, Silver’s results appeared to [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Current national margin and corrected EV estimator

September 5th, 2008, 9:11pm by Sam Wang

We aren’t going to know where things stand until weekend polling comes out on Monday. In the meantime, a brief snapshot of where things may be headed. Based on six national polls spanning September 1-4, on those dates Obama led McCain by 3.5 +/- 0.9 %…

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Tags: 2008 Election

A long view of electoral history

September 5th, 2008, 11:22am by Sam Wang

As we wait for the eye of the polling hurricane to pass, here’s an interesting site: Voting America, created by the Digital Scholarship lab at the University of Richmond. It gives maps of Presidential election results at state, county, and population levels from 1840 to 2004. In addition there’s commentary on a variety of topics, [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Poll geek humor

September 4th, 2008, 9:08pm by Sam Wang

Many of you won’t get this joke by Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight…

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Tags: 2008 Election

Assessing the effect of the bounce [currently Obama 324, McCain 214]

September 4th, 2008, 12:19pm by Sam Wang

We are at the end of several very eventful weeks. The finale is, of course, tonight: McCain’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention (and a pre-rebuttal by Obama on The O’Reilly Factor). National polls will come in over the weekend. Here’s a tool to help you interpret them.

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized

InTrade and Palin (again)

September 2nd, 2008, 10:59am by Sam Wang

InTrade has a new political contract: Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election, now trading at 12.0. Buy or sell? I’m thinking buy. (Update: strong buy.) (Update 2: That speech got the base excited – indeed, it may end up being the highlight of the convention. And she established [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Taking feedback

September 2nd, 2008, 8:12am by Sam Wang

This morning on FiveThirtyEight, a correction meant to counteract the effect of post-convention bounces was removed. Evidently reader feedback was negative. This is a useful lesson…

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Tags: Meta-analysis

National update: Obama ahead by 5-8%, with a post-convention bounce of 3-4% (and its effect on EV estimate)

September 1st, 2008, 11:24pm by Sam Wang

It’s now possible to examine the Democratic post-convention bounce. I define the bounce as the shift in the Obama-McCain margin as of this weekend compared with after August 21st (the date of McCain’s number-of-houses gaffe and the “Seven” ad). I have four matched comparisons in which an organization polled both soon after the 21st and [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Site News · Uncategorized