Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from September 14th, 2008

National polls: the gap closes

September 14th, 2008, 9:45pm by Sam Wang

For the last week, John McCain was an average of 2% ahead of Barack Obama in national polls. But this weekend the gap closed after a widely viewed television performance by McCain. In polling through Saturday, the median margin is now a tie: 0.0 +/- 1.1%.

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Tags: 2008 Election

A change to the polling database

September 14th, 2008, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

Until now the Meta-Analysis has used all polls in the Pollster.com database. However, a source of many outliers is Zogby Interactive, which uses Internet-based polling. Recently we dropped them. The EV estimator will be calculated without their data.

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Tags: Meta-analysis

Watching the next wave break

September 12th, 2008, 5:12pm by Sam Wang

Now that it’s Friday afternoon, let’s review where things stand. Electorally, the race is a near-perfect draw. The question is: what’s next? Here’s my take on what to watch in the coming days.

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Tags: 2008 Election

State poll update nearly complete – and a surprise

September 12th, 2008, 6:55am by Sam Wang

The top-line estimate above is nearly current. Since the convention, of the remaining 18 battleground states we have at least 3 polls for PA, MI, CO, VA, OH, FL, NC, and AK*. Nearly all the EV swing would come from these states. We are at a near-tie in the Electoral College. There is something remarkable [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

The flood of state polls

September 11th, 2008, 7:40pm by Sam Wang

On the left sidebar check out the RSS stream of presidential polls from Pollster.com. For those of you who really want the details, use it! The polls are coming fast and furious now. For an interesting point, see today’s reporting by Nate Silver. He points out that McCain’s bounce appears not to be evenly distributed. [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Today: McCain +2.0+/-0.8% (adjusted EV Obama 238, McCain 300)

September 11th, 2008, 5:23pm by Sam Wang

It appears that the tie I reported before was indeed a fluctuation. Seven national polls conducted September 8-10 give McCain, once again, a median margin of 2.0+/-0.8% over Obama. Applying this as an adjustment to the EV estimator above gives a current estimate of Obama 238 EV, McCain 300 EV. The 95% confidence intervals are [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Dialing it back…

September 10th, 2008, 8:34pm by Sam Wang

Reader PC thinks I need to be careful not to cross the line, so we can focus on the credibility of the work at hand. It’s a good point. The offending post is gone. Instead, here’s something more substantive: a video on the earmark queen. Which leads us to the funny bit:

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis · Site News

Princeton study on election prediction – your opinion matters!

September 10th, 2008, 2:04pm by Sam Wang

My colleague Dan Osherson in the Psychology department is conducting a survey that you might enjoy taking. The topic is our favorite one, the 2008 Presidential Election. It’s a bit reminiscent of electronic markets like InTrade, but the questions are more complex. There’s a prize for the best entry. Go on, take a look – [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Is the bounce fading? National polls a tie, 0.0 +/- 1.0%

September 9th, 2008, 9:34pm by Sam Wang

In five polls released today, all spanning September 6-8, the Obama-McCain margin is 0.0 +/- 1.0%, a perfect tie. Is this apparent tightening the end of a bounce – or just random fluctuation?

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Tags: 2008 Election

A welcome to new readers – and a caution

September 9th, 2008, 9:51am by Sam Wang

Welcome! One-fourth of this site’s traffic has come in the last two days. On Sunday, someone made the 100,000th page view. This post is for new (and returning) readers who need to be brought up to speed. Also, because of rapidly changing events, the true current snapshot is not what’s listed above. Instead, it’s McCain [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election · Site News