Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from September 24th, 2008

McCain moves to postpone first debate

September 24th, 2008, 3:31pm by Sam Wang

This is weird. John McCain wants to suspend his campaign and postpone the first debate. His stated reason is a desire to focus on the financial crisis. On substantive grounds, this reason doesn’t make sense. He’s been on the campaign trail. All the legislative action is back in Washington, and is being handled by the [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Disappearing posts?

September 24th, 2008, 1:21pm by Sam Wang

Just a reminder – posts that are highly specific to the Meta-Analysis get shunted over to the right sidebar after a little while. This is especially true if they concern individual polls, a topic of transient interest.

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Tags: Site News

Turning back

September 23rd, 2008, 2:35pm by Sam Wang

Today’s data puts the EV estimator back on track. This supports the double-outlier idea. Okay, back to our regularly scheduled Meta-Analysis.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

An unexpected turn

September 22nd, 2008, 10:36am by Sam Wang

Although national polls have shown steady movement in Obama’s direction, this weekend the Meta-Analysis made a clear move toward McCain. What’s going on?

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Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

Show your support

September 20th, 2008, 7:57am by Sam Wang

This site doesn’t take donations. But one way to show your support is to give to the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund. They’ve made what one survey suggests is, by some measures, the most effective ad of the campaign. Details – and equal time to an opposing cause – follow.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Site News

The Palin bounce ends

September 18th, 2008, 4:30pm by Sam Wang

The state-poll Meta-Analysis history reached an extreme yesterday, as I predicted. Today it jumped sharply upward. It will continue to follow national poll trends with a delay. At a national level, the post-GOP convention bounce is definitively over. Nine polls give a median margin of Obama leading by 4.0 +/- 1.3 %. The transition away [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Populist talk from Arugula-land

September 18th, 2008, 1:40pm by Sam Wang

Last night I hosted Marcia Angell, advocate of health system reform and former editor of the New England Journal of Medicine. The talk was stimulating. But dinner beforehand was even more fun. It even made me look at the history graph slightly differently.

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Tags: 2008 Election

Polls and mood

September 17th, 2008, 11:30am by Sam Wang

This morning I ran into a senior colleague at the town coffee joint. She and I agreed that during the heat of a presidential race, polls influenced our mood strongly. If that’s generally true, then I sense some moods shifting out there. National polls (Diageo, Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, ARG, Reuters) conducted 9/11-16 give a [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Red gets redder

September 16th, 2008, 9:53am by Sam Wang

Today on Pollster.com, Charles Franklin has an interesting graph detailing where John McCain’s post-convention bounce occurred. It illuminates why McCain was up by more in national polls (2%) than he appeared to be in the Electoral College (basically a tie).

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Tags: 2008 Election

Site features, old and new

September 15th, 2008, 4:00pm by Sam Wang

We’ve rearranged things a little. Andrew Ferguson and Drew Thaler have added features and documentation that I hope you’ll like. Foremost is the interactive electoral map on the right sidebar, which is helpful in examining likely future scenarios.

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Tags: 2008 Election · Site News