Just a reminder – posts that are highly specific to the Meta-Analysis get shunted over to the right sidebar after a little while. This is especially true if they concern individual polls, a topic of transient interest.
Entries from September 24th, 2008
Show your support
September 20th, 2008, 7:57am by Sam Wang
This site doesn’t take donations. But one way to show your support is to give to the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund. They’ve made what one survey suggests is, by some measures, the most effective ad of the campaign. Details – and equal time to an opposing cause – follow.
Tags: 2008 Election · Site News
The Palin bounce ends
September 18th, 2008, 4:30pm by Sam Wang
The state-poll Meta-Analysis history reached an extreme yesterday, as I predicted. Today it jumped sharply upward. It will continue to follow national poll trends with a delay.
At a national level, the post-GOP convention bounce is definitively over. Nine polls give a median margin of Obama leading by 4.0 +/- 1.3 %. The transition away from [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
Populist talk from Arugula-land
September 18th, 2008, 1:40pm by Sam Wang
Last night I hosted Marcia Angell, advocate of health system reform and former editor of the New England Journal of Medicine. The talk was stimulating. But dinner beforehand was even more fun. It even made me look at the history graph slightly differently.
Tags: 2008 Election
Polls and mood
September 17th, 2008, 11:30am by Sam Wang
This morning I ran into a senior colleague at the town coffee joint. She and I agreed that during the heat of a presidential race, polls influenced our mood strongly. If that’s generally true, then I sense some moods shifting out there.
National polls (Diageo, Rasmussen, Gallup, Research 2000, ARG, Reuters) conducted 9/11-16 give a median [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
Red gets redder
September 16th, 2008, 9:53am by Sam Wang
Today on Pollster.com, Charles Franklin has an interesting graph detailing where John McCain’s post-convention bounce occurred. It illuminates why McCain was up by more in national polls (2%) than he appeared to be in the Electoral College (basically a tie).
Tags: 2008 Election
Site features, old and new
September 15th, 2008, 4:00pm by Sam Wang
We’ve rearranged things a little. Andrew Ferguson and Drew Thaler have added features and documentation that I hope you’ll like. Foremost is the interactive electoral map on the right sidebar, which is helpful in examining likely future scenarios.
Tags: 2008 Election · Site News
National polls: the gap closes
September 14th, 2008, 9:45pm by Sam Wang
For the last week, John McCain was an average of 2% ahead of Barack Obama in national polls. But this weekend the gap closed after a widely viewed television performance by McCain. In polling through Saturday, the median margin is now a tie: 0.0 +/- 1.1%.
Tags: 2008 Election
Watching the next wave break
September 12th, 2008, 5:12pm by Sam Wang
Now that it’s Friday afternoon, let’s review where things stand.
Electorally, the race is a near-perfect draw. The question is: what’s next? Here’s my take on what to watch in the coming days.
Tags: 2008 Election
State poll update nearly complete – and a surprise
September 12th, 2008, 6:55am by Sam Wang
The top-line estimate above is nearly current. Since the convention, of the remaining 18 battleground states we have at least 3 polls for PA, MI, CO, VA, OH, FL, NC, and AK*. Nearly all the EV swing would come from these states. We are at a near-tie in the Electoral College.
There is something remarkable going [...]
Tags: 2008 Election
