Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

The flood of state polls

September 11th, 2008, 7:40pm by Sam Wang


On the left sidebar check out the RSS stream of presidential polls from Pollster.com. For those of you who really want the details, use it!

The polls are coming fast and furious now. For an interesting point, see today’s reporting by Nate Silver. He points out that McCain’s bounce appears not to be evenly distributed. If true, this works against McCain because his popular support is coming in deep red states where it doesn’t affect his EV count.

It also means that the EV adjustment I’ve been giving may be overstated. I’ve been applying the national bounce as a simple, across-the-board shift. But this is not right. Silver gives a more elaborate correction which is also likely to have a similar problem. He has used demographic and undecided-voter arguments that don’t match the pattern implied here, which may include many white fundamentalists coming home to Jesus, as it were; or perhaps rural voters.

This is going to be very interesting – among other things, it increases the likelihood of Obama winning the electoral vote but losing the popular vote. Gore avenged?

In any case, it looks like we’ll get caught up sooner than I expected. Tune in for our next top-line update at midnight.

Tags: 2008 Election

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