Princeton Election Consortium

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Post-convention national polls: 9-10 point bounce for McCain

September 8th, 2008, 1:42pm by Sam Wang


Eight weekend polls are out with all respondents reached after McCain’s speech, the last GOP convention event. The median margin is McCain ahead of Obama by 2.0 +/- 1.2 %. This margin can be used to adjust the state-polls-only EV estimate given above. The adjusted EV estimate is a near-reversal: McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 EV.

The eight weekend polls span September 5-7 and are the most recent available from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Diageo/Hotline, USA Today/Gallup, CNN, Zogby Interactive, ABC/Washington Post, and CBS. They draw upon over 11,000 respondents. Two polls have been added, added in italics.

Based on the correction to pre-convention state polls I provided last week, applying the national margin as a correction to the Meta-Analysis gives a median EV estimate of McCain 300 EV, Obama 238 EV. The 95% confidence interval is McCain [268-338] EV, Obama [200-270] EV.

Omitting data from Zogby Interactive, a poll that is known to be of low data quality, makes no difference in the margin and therefore no difference in the EV estimate or 95% confidence interval.

Matched comparisons with the six polls previously reported gives a bounce for McCain of 9.5 +/- 2.2%.

Sources: Pollster.com, RealClearPolitics.

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