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Entries from August 4th, 2008

A weakness in fivethirtyeight.com

August 4th, 2008, 3:43pm by Sam Wang

[Postscript: Some of you have pointed out that to account for non-independent drift between states, Silver implements an add-on procedure involving an adjustment after the win probabilities are calculated. Therefore, you say, simulations are necessary. Several points are being overlooked. First, the main effect of such a procedure is to increase the amount of uncertainty […]

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