A reader asked about a statement by David Gergen on CNN that based on [an average of ] the most recent polls, McCain would win the Electoral College. Using only the most recent available poll in each state (as opposed to the last three polls, our usual top-line estimate), assigning every state to its more [...]
Entries from August 20th, 2008
Current single-poll median: Obama 280, McCain 258
August 20th, 2008, 9:10am by Sam Wang
Tags: Uncategorized
Battleground-state spending: comparisons with 2004
August 18th, 2008, 10:26pm by Sam Wang
Today we have a news story about the state-by-state spending patterns by the two campaigns. McCain is focusing on battleground states, while Obama is spreading resources more broadly. At first this may seem odd. But it makes sense in terms of voter power – and relates to a recent change I made in defining the [...]
Tags: 2004 Election · 2008 Election
One small weakness in the Meta-Analysis
August 10th, 2008, 4:56pm by Sam Wang
The Meta-Analysis made a correct 2004 Election Eve prediction, and gives good single-glance information as the race heats up. Currently, in August, it moves relatively slowly due to the sparseness of polling data. But by September this problem will fade as the race picks up.
Tags: 2008 Election
The voter influence measure
August 8th, 2008, 10:37am by Sam Wang
A reader James asked about the extreme values that the “Voter Influence” measure was taking on. His comment and my reply are here. This quantity (seen in the right sidebar) expresses the marginal influence that individual voters have on the final outcome probability. Per his feedback, I’ve modifed it…
Tags: 2008 Election
A weakness in fivethirtyeight.com
August 4th, 2008, 3:43pm by Sam Wang
[Postscript: Some of you have pointed out that to account for non-independent drift between states, Silver implements an add-on procedure involving an adjustment after the win probabilities are calculated. Therefore, you say, simulations are necessary. Several points are being overlooked. First, the main effect of such a procedure is to increase the amount of uncertainty [...]
Tags: Uncategorized
