Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

McCain’s VP according to InTrade…

August 29th, 2008, 9:08am by Sam Wang


Can it possibly be…Sarah Palin? Update 1: InTrade punked? Update 2: It’s Palin.

As of 9:05am Eastern time this monring, Palin is priced on InTrade at 80, equivalent to an 80% probability of her being the nominee. As early as 7am, she was at 50. (hat tip to Manoj)

Who is Sarah Palin? She’s the Governor of Alaska. According to Wikipedia (I know, it could be flaky),

On August 29, 2008, Fox News Channel’s Fox & Friends reported that Palin’s family departed hastily from Anchorage, Alaska, aboard a Gulfstream jet that landed near Dayton, Ohio, site of McCain’s planned vice presidential announcement.

And here’s the flight plan.

She’s 44 years old, a staunch conservative, anti-abortion/pro-life like McCain, and highly popular in Alaska (with its three electoral votes) despite a brewing scandal. She likes moose burgers and is a Miss Alaska first runner-up. This is fascinating. It seems like a Hail Mary pass, or something else. Disastrous? Brilliant? Or a footnote? Note that the InTrade contracts don’t expire until after the convention.

A reader wrote, “it won’t be the first time that InTrade broke the news well in advance of the media.” It’s not that clear that InTrade was first. The Palin trading price started shooting up around the time that Fox & Friends starts, 6:00am Eastern time. There was a small run-up before that. Perhaps somebody close to the story is a gambler?

Postscript: In the original post, I wrote that the pick might have a sign that the GOP had given up on the race. This is probably untrue – after all, the Meta-Margin is currently small – and a reader called me on it. So I removed that bit.

However, my point in these VP posts is to get away from dry statistics, if only for a moment. Speaking personally, this reallly doesn’t look like a choice that will wear well in the coming weeks (or years, for that matter).

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