Comments on: Why not to want a “prediction” http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/24/why-not-to-want-a-prediction/ A first draft of electoral history Thu, 12 Nov 2009 02:35:25 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/24/why-not-to-want-a-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-223 Sam Wang Mon, 25 Aug 2008 04:12:19 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=456#comment-223 David, the right reason for reading this site is that its calculation is the most precise. I'm not aware of anyone else who could identify a post-houses gaffe bounce within 1-2 days. Regarding Silver - I like most of his commentary, and his reader base is of course enviable. There is no point in replicating the other data. That would be silly. Personally, I prefer Pollster.com, which leaves out the projection mumbo-jumbo. In regard to thinking of innovations, I’ll come up with more over time. The post above was one example. It gives you an understanding of the dynamics in 2004. The 2008 analysis will do the same. In fact, it already has. David, the right reason for reading this site is that its calculation is the most precise. I’m not aware of anyone else who could identify a post-houses gaffe bounce within 1-2 days.

Regarding Silver – I like most of his commentary, and his reader base is of course enviable. There is no point in replicating the other data. That would be silly. Personally, I prefer Pollster.com, which leaves out the projection mumbo-jumbo.

In regard to thinking of innovations, I’ll come up with more over time. The post above was one example. It gives you an understanding of the dynamics in 2004. The 2008 analysis will do the same. In fact, it already has.

]]> By: David http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/24/why-not-to-want-a-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-212 David Sun, 24 Aug 2008 21:28:07 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=456#comment-212 I admit, since I found this site I've been checking here every day because the outlook for Obama is a lot more positive than the other sites. :D (bad reason, I know) You're probably right about it being better to estimate the here and now rather than pointlessly project. Nevertheless, you have to admit you sound a little jealous of fivethirtyeight since you harp on it so much in posts. Nate's site also projects senate races, gets into politics more, and is updated more frequently. If you want some publicity, add something innovative to the site instead of constantly just saying all the other guys are wrong. I admit, since I found this site I’ve been checking here every day because the outlook for Obama is a lot more positive than the other sites. :D (bad reason, I know)

You’re probably right about it being better to estimate the here and now rather than pointlessly project. Nevertheless, you have to admit you sound a little jealous of fivethirtyeight since you harp on it so much in posts.

Nate’s site also projects senate races, gets into politics more, and is updated more frequently. If you want some publicity, add something innovative to the site instead of constantly just saying all the other guys are wrong.

]]> By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/24/why-not-to-want-a-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-209 Sam Wang Sun, 24 Aug 2008 20:03:28 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=456#comment-209 Too little data to tell. Attacks happened in August 2004 and this August this year as well. Too little data to tell. Attacks happened in August 2004 and this August this year as well.

]]> By: Independent http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/24/why-not-to-want-a-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-206 Independent Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:10:31 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=456#comment-206 Do you see a seasonality in the EV estimates? Between March and July/August the Democratic candidate has gained about 30% EVs in both 2004 and 2008. In 2004, Kerry then proceeded to lose all of that advantage. This year, Obama has lost about 10% so far. In very broad terms, there seems to be a hint of a pattern there. Do you see a seasonality in the EV estimates? Between March and July/August the Democratic candidate has gained about 30% EVs in both 2004 and 2008. In 2004, Kerry then proceeded to lose all of that advantage. This year, Obama has lost about 10% so far. In very broad terms, there seems to be a hint of a pattern there.

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