Princeton Election Consortium

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VP guessing

August 21st, 2008, 12:32am by Sam Wang


While we wait for the announcement, here’s my guess regarding Obama’s running mate. No meta-analysis, just a guess (with final update) after the jump…

Update: two things. I’m thinking my first guess was wrong. Anyway, we’re not going to hear who the pick is until the Obama campaign milks “how-many-houses-does-McCain-own” some more. Speaking of which, on this new topic my guess is nine. Nine houses.

…Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. A bridge-builder to Republicans in pursuit of progressive goals – fits Obama’s message. Read here for more.

There are so many other possibilities: Biden, Hillary, Richardson, Kaine, Webb, Clark, Bayh… here and here are some tea leaves from Obama.

Update: I’m switching to Governor Kaine of Virginia. See my response below. Since, like you, I have no idea, I may as well change my mind!

Final Update: So it was Biden – the Intrade favorite. People like that site for state-win predictions, but I think that’s just a validation of the market approach. It’s much more interesting for this kind of question. Biden threw reporters off with his casual “I’m not the guy.” Excellent. John in comments got his wish for foreign policy expertise. And the VP debate is sure to be great fun.

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7 Comments so far ↓

  • Sam Wang

    Sebastian – Brian Schweitzer? Now that’s an interesting idea. Why haven’t we heard about him for this? It would leave MT in the lurch though. Read this.

    Back to houses – recall that at the Sedona house, McCain threw a party for journalists. It turns out there’s video. I feel a powerful sense of revulsion. Josh’s reader TP has put it so well.

  • Sam Wang

    Actually, the foreign policy matters to me quite a lot. To emphasize, in my view Obama is better on this topic. I am pleased to see it featured as the topic of the first debate.

  • Sebastian Jano

    I believe the pick will be the governor of Montana.He’s an energy expert will considerable expertise in the Middle East, he’s “strong on” on guns, and could deliver a state.

    He’s plain spoken and intimately familiar with the West and so could be of great use in Nevada and Colorado.

    Webb would have been my preference, then Clark, and Nunn third, but all have seem to fade for one reason or the other.

    So keep your eye on Montana, not Kansas.

  • John

    The foreign policy angle does not matter to you and me, because we believe that McCain is foolish and dangerous. But you and and I are in the minority. As you have suggested elsewhere, McCain appears to be scoring points by implying that Obama is unprepared, especially in foreign policy. This strategy seems preposterous from the guy who told us the Iraq war would pay for itself, but it also seems to be working.

  • Michael

    Geographically it doesn’t seem to be that important anymore what state a VP is from. Just at first blush that’s what it seems, and the same for Dick, he’s not making any difference in Wyoming, Quayle in Indiana. Maybe Gore helped with some electoral votes? I don’t know who Barack would pick besides Richardson? See if he can break his handshaking record.

  • Sam Wang

    I don’t think that matters. Stop and think. Do you seriously think McCain is unambiguously better on foreign policy? He seems dangerous to me. Like Josh Marshall says, McCain makes Bush look sane.

    After reflecting on what Obama said, I think it will be a non-Senator who is a non-grandstander. Two strikes against Biden. Probably a governor. Kaine’s been out front on going after McCain, how about him?

  • John

    But Sebelius leaves Obama open to the critique that his team is too inexperienced in foreign policy. This critique seems to be playing well for McCain thus far.