Comments on: Current single-poll median: Obama 280, McCain 258 http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/20/current-poll-calculation-obama-280-mccain-258/ A first draft of electoral history Thu, 12 Nov 2009 02:35:25 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Sam Wang http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/20/current-poll-calculation-obama-280-mccain-258/comment-page-1/#comment-196 Sam Wang Sat, 23 Aug 2008 10:19:30 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=397#comment-196 MichaelL, as I have written <a href="/2008/08/04/on-a-flaw-in-fivethirtyeightcom/" rel="nofollow">previously</a>, one could, but it adds considerable uncertainty and is in my view not useful. If you like that kind of thing you can try fivethirtyeight.com and stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com. MichaelL, as I have written previously, one could, but it adds considerable uncertainty and is in my view not useful. If you like that kind of thing you can try fivethirtyeight.com and stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com.

]]> By: MichaelL http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/20/current-poll-calculation-obama-280-mccain-258/comment-page-1/#comment-189 MichaelL Sat, 23 Aug 2008 01:55:23 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=397#comment-189 Can you somehow measure the volatility in poll shifts over time and factor that into your prediction? So your moving confidence interval would reflect the decreasing volatility as we approach election day. The "if the election were held today" criteria doesn't really tell us much when we are weeks away from polling day. Can you somehow measure the volatility in poll shifts over time and factor that into your prediction? So your moving confidence interval would reflect the decreasing volatility as we approach election day. The “if the election were held today” criteria doesn’t really tell us much when we are weeks away from polling day.

]]> By: Frank http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/20/current-poll-calculation-obama-280-mccain-258/comment-page-1/#comment-166 Frank Thu, 21 Aug 2008 00:48:26 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=397#comment-166 Since I appear to have started this, I should clarify. Gergen's Aug 19 remark was this: "For the first time, if you look at an average of state by state of the polls, for the first time, today, if you look at the Electoral College, if the election were held today, again to an average of state polls, for the first time, John McCain would win." http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0808/19/acd.01.html On the previous day he wrote this: "A web site that averages all significant polls, RealClearPolitics.com, has previously projected that just looking at polls, Obama was ahead in states with over 300 electoral votes; now he is down to 275 — a tiny cushion since 270 is the magical number for winning." http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/18/is-the-tide-turning/#more-5761 I believe he was referring in both cases to this, which today has McCain up by 10 electoral-college votes: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10 Since I appear to have started this, I should clarify.

Gergen’s Aug 19 remark was this:
“For the first time, if you look at an average of state by state of the polls, for the first time, today, if you look at the Electoral College, if the election were held today, again to an average of state polls, for the first time, John McCain would win.”
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0808/19/acd.01.html

On the previous day he wrote this:
“A web site that averages all significant polls, RealClearPolitics.com, has previously projected that just looking at polls, Obama was ahead in states with over 300 electoral votes; now he is down to 275 — a tiny cushion since 270 is the magical number for winning.”
http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/18/is-the-tide-turning/#more-5761

I believe he was referring in both cases to this, which today has McCain up by 10 electoral-college votes:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

]]> By: J.W. Hamner http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/20/current-poll-calculation-obama-280-mccain-258/comment-page-1/#comment-165 J.W. Hamner Wed, 20 Aug 2008 23:42:54 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=397#comment-165 I love that you report confidence intervals. Seriously. I hardly see it in people who purport to do science, so it's quite refreshing to see it in someone examining politics. I love that you report confidence intervals. Seriously. I hardly see it in people who purport to do science, so it’s quite refreshing to see it in someone examining politics.

]]> By: Jeff MacSwan http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/20/current-poll-calculation-obama-280-mccain-258/comment-page-1/#comment-163 Jeff MacSwan Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:53:38 +0000 http://election.princeton.edu/?p=397#comment-163 Gergen's actual remark was that an "average of state polls" for the first time show that McCain would win if the election were held today (or yesterday, I guess, when he said it). Sam has commented that the average of polls is less accurate than the meta-analysis. Perhaps an opportunity to make the point clearer? Gergen’s actual remark was that an “average of state polls” for the first time show that McCain would win if the election were held today (or yesterday, I guess, when he said it). Sam has commented that the average of polls is less accurate than the meta-analysis. Perhaps an opportunity to make the point clearer?

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