Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

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The suspense in Ohio…

August 15th, 2008, 9:24am by Sam Wang


I don’t know about you, but the suspense is killing me. Where is that history trend headed? If you look at the details, the big state that hasn’t reported in weeks is Ohio. Once Ohio reports, we should have a fairly clear idea of the August swing, which I ascribe to McCain’s Celebrity(!)/Anti-Christ ads.

Update: …and, the other shoe drops. PPP (D) reports a tie in Ohio, an eight-point swing from their previous poll. As you can see from the history graph, the result, Obama 291 McCain 247, with a Meta-Margin of 1.58%, is the closest the race has been since mid-June. The next few weeks (VP selections, conventions, McCain’s 72nd birthday) should be interesting to watch, to say the least.

Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

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