Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from August 30th, 2008

Palin not a hit with undecideds

August 30th, 2008, 9:34pm by Sam Wang

Via Andrew Sullivan: a new Rasmussen poll says that among undecided voters, 6% say it would make them more likely to vote for McCain, 31% said less likely, 49% said no impact, and 15% said not sure. In the same survey, 59% of undecideds said Palin was unready to be president; 6% said she was. [...]

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Tags: 2006 Elections · Uncategorized

Waiting

August 30th, 2008, 9:54am by Sam Wang

Opinion-changing political events are now happening more frequently than state polls. The weakness I mentioned before, that until September the Meta-Analysis is a slow-moving index, is apparent. It contains no polls that started after August 21st, the date of McCain’s statement about his houses, for the following states: Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio. [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

McCain’s VP according to InTrade…

August 29th, 2008, 9:08am by Sam Wang

Can it possibly be…Sarah Palin? Update 1: InTrade punked? Update 2: It’s Palin.

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Tags: Uncategorized

VP guessing (part 2) and electronic markets

August 27th, 2008, 2:48pm by Sam Wang

The Meta-Analysis EV estimator is unlikely to move much until post-convention polls come in. It appears that the post-houses gaffe cost John McCain 15 EV. We probably won’t ever know the exact amplitude, but I’m guessing it’s at least that much. My first VP guess (Sebelius or Kaine) wasn’t so good. This time I’ll use [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Stopping false beliefs – lessons for journalists from brain science

August 25th, 2008, 9:43pm by Sam Wang

In my day job I’m a neuroscientist. Usually this does not intersect with politics, but today’s an exception. In June, my book co-author Sandra Aamodt and I wrote for the New York Times about how our brains lie to us, allowing the formation of false beliefs. Examples of false beliefs include rumors about Barack Obama’s [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized

Conditional probabilities – what if…

August 25th, 2008, 2:02pm by Sam Wang

Today, reader Steve asked about the overall odds if Obama or McCain wins CO, OH, or VA. This is easy to calculate – I did it back in 2004 (scroll way down to October 22). So let’s revisit that…

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Tags: 2008 Election

Amazingly fast response

August 24th, 2008, 9:12pm by Sam Wang

Now that’s a fast response in the Meta-Analysis. On August 18th-20th, the electoral vote estimator appeared to be at a new plateau of Obama 289-291 EV, McCain 247-249 EV. Then on Thursday the 21st, John McCain had a very bad day. The next day the estimator started creeping up, presumably because the last day of [...]

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Tags: 2008 Election

Why not to want a “prediction”

August 24th, 2008, 6:30am by Sam Wang

Many of you have asked for the snapshot to be extended to make a prediction of what will happen on Election Day. A close look at my Meta-Analysis from 2004 shows the problems in wanting such a thing, and how to gauge the limitations of even the most careful of predictions.

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Tags: 2006 Elections · 2008 Election

Psst… Want to Buy a Slightly Used Voting Machine?

August 22nd, 2008, 10:24am by Ed Felten

Used touch-screen voting machines are going up for sale, as states and counties move to more secure technologies. Thus begins a new chapter in our struggle to find workable election technologies for the twenty-first century.

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Tags: Uncategorized

VP guessing

August 21st, 2008, 12:32am by Sam Wang

While we wait for the announcement, here’s my guess regarding Obama’s running mate. No meta-analysis, just a guess (with final update) after the jump… Update: two things. I’m thinking my first guess was wrong. Anyway, we’re not going to hear who the pick is until the Obama campaign milks “how-many-houses-does-McCain-own” some more. Speaking of which, [...]

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Tags: Uncategorized