Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

July 25 update: Obama 294 McCain 244

July 25th, 2008, 1:08pm by Sam Wang


While we’re getting the graphics and data feed online, I’ll continue manual updates based on the downloadable data at electoral-vote.com. Using the median of the last 3 polls, the current median EV estimator and 95% confidence interval is Obama 294 [262,336], McCain 244 [202,276]. This result is based on 137 state-level polls across 50 states.

The Popular Meta-Margin is Obama +2.3%, meaning that if his overall margin dropped by 2.3%, the median would be an exact toss-up. As an independent comparison, some narrowing seems to appear in the averages of national polls as well, as seen on Pollster.com.

Both results represent a narrowing from July 20th. This is surprising since news events featuring Obama (al-Maliki endorsement of his plan, visits to Afghanistan and Iraq) and McCain (several gaffes, including one on the surge) seem to favor Obama. This gets back to the question of which events are the ones that move voter sentiment. It’s not always obvious from our own reactions, especially if we ourselves are strongly decided. To see what seemed to move voters in 2004, click here.

Tags: 2008 Election · Meta-analysis

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