Check the right sidebar for some cool interactive maps. The state-by-state probabilities are in this file; the first number on each line gives the percentage probability that Obama is ahead. The bars indicate electoral votes for which win probabilities are currently greater than 95% for either candidate.
Entries from July 31st, 2008
July 31st, 2008, 12:08pm by Sam Wang
The question arises: how good is the Meta-Analysis in comparison with a more conventional measure such as an average of multiple national polls? Answer: Today, the Meta-Analysis is over four times as accurate as an average of recent national polls. Furthermore, it gives an estimate in the units that matter – electoral votes. Here’s why. [...]
July 29th, 2008, 2:44pm by Sam Wang
The data feed from Pollster.com is live! Many thanks to Mark Blumenthal and Eric Dienstfrey for their assistance.
July 25th, 2008, 1:08pm by Sam Wang
While we’re getting the graphics and data feed online, I’ll continue manual updates based on the downloadable data at electoral-vote.com. Using the median of the last 3 polls, the current median EV estimator and 95% confidence interval is Obama 294 [262,336], McCain 244 [202,276]. This result is based on 137 state-level polls across 50 states.
July 20th, 2008, 10:46pm by Sam Wang
For those of you who followed my analysis in 2004, welcome back. Just as I did then, I’ll be providing meta-analysis of polling in the 2008 Presidential race. My central goal is to reduce hundreds of state-level polls to simple statistics that will show you the state of play. The methods will be transparent, and [...]
Tags: 2008 Election