Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from July 31st, 2008

Want to see individual state probabilities?

July 31st, 2008, 1:58pm by Sam Wang

Check the right sidebar for some cool interactive maps. The state-by-state probabilities are in this file; the first number on each line gives the percentage probability that Obama is ahead. The bars indicate electoral votes for which win probabilities are currently greater than 95% for either candidate.

[

Tags: Site News

Our accuracy compared with national poll averages

July 31st, 2008, 12:08pm by Sam Wang

The question arises: how good is the Meta-Analysis in comparison with a more conventional measure such as an average of multiple national polls? Answer: Today, the Meta-Analysis is over four times as accurate as an average of recent national polls. Furthermore, it gives an estimate in the units that matter – electoral votes. Here’s why. [...]

[

Tags: Uncategorized

We’re back!

July 20th, 2008, 10:46pm by Sam Wang

For those of you who followed my analysis in 2004, welcome back. Just as I did then, I’ll be providing meta-analysis of polling in the 2008 Presidential race. My central goal is to reduce hundreds of state-level polls to simple statistics that will show you the state of play. The methods will be transparent, and [...]

[

Tags: 2008 Election