Princeton Election Consortium

There are so many of these exit polls – just like the campaign season all over again. Time for meta-analysis. I am plotting all that I can find on my graph. Nearly all of them are above the no-bias line. Looking at all of them at once, the median bias seems to be about +3%. [...]

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Early exit polls on Drudge (above the title). If you plot them on my brochure graph, their median is around +5% bias. This may regress as Republicans get to the polls, but I think this is a telling sign. Not sure if I will be blogging the returns – just a heads-up for you. I [...]

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Running list of brochure errata and edits here. All are fixed in the current version, downloadable here (PDF). Apologies for these small errors. Page 1: where it says “215 EV” it should say “230 EV.” Page 4: NM margin is Bush +2.7 ± 1.7%, not +3.1 ±1.5%. I now have a Kerry win probability >50%. [...]

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Poll closing times are listed here. The earliest bellwether is NH (poll average Kerry +2.9 ±1.1%, n=7). Kerry by 5-7% would be consistent with my final assumptions. Next is WV. Let’s see what happens.

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I have added two pages to the brochure – a graph to help you calculate for yourself the net bias, and an electoral map. Political psychologist Manuel M. Frank writes in with a model indicating that I have underestimated the turnout bias. Looking at his work, my original figure of +2.5% agrees with his calculations [...]

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The last prediction is in. I have set the turnout figure to a lower bound of 1.5%, for a net of +3.0%. This is a value for which the median and map are readily reconcilable, which may reduce my email load. Readers, thanks for the dialogue. The box and final summary are updated. Other entries [...]

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For all of you writing me about the cell phone idea, I do not think this objection has merit. I have read the recent Zogby poll. I will write about this after the election.

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Upon reflection the last bit involves double-counting of turnout. Perhaps this factor should be less than 2.5%. This will be reflected when I incorporate the last polls.

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I’ve been getting criticisms of my original estimates of the undecided and turnout adjustments. Why don’t we postpone further discussion until tomorrow, when we know the true outcome. Anyway, I have given you enough information to let you make your own predictions. Lower and upper bounds can be set using Gallup’s last poll. This shows [...]

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Gambling is a vice. But putting that aside, looking at TradeSports I think that a good cautious bet is to take equal positions against “Bush to win the election” (i.e. SELL, a bet that he loses) and against “Bush to win 250 or more EV” (i.e. SELL, a bet that he gets <250 EV). One [...]

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