Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from November 2nd, 2004

Exit Polls Meta-Analysis

November 2nd, 2004, 5:45pm by Sam Wang

There are so many of these exit polls – just like the campaign season all over again. Time for meta-analysis. I am plotting all that I can find on my graph. Nearly all of them are above the no-bias line. Looking at all of them at once, the median bias seems to be about +3%. [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Plotting the First Exit Polls

November 2nd, 2004, 3:00pm by Sam Wang

Early exit polls on Drudge (above the title). If you plot them on my brochure graph, their median is around +5% bias. This may regress as Republicans get to the polls, but I think this is a telling sign. Not sure if I will be blogging the returns – just a heads-up for you. I [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Errors in the Brochure

November 2nd, 2004, 2:30pm by Sam Wang

Running list of brochure errata and edits here. All are fixed in the current version, downloadable here (PDF). Apologies for these small errors. Page 1: where it says “215 EV” it should say “230 EV.” Page 4: NM margin is Bush +2.7 ± 1.7%, not +3.1 ±1.5%. I now have a Kerry win probability >50%. [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Poll Closing Times; NH the first Predictor

November 2nd, 2004, 11:30am by Sam Wang

Poll closing times are listed here. The earliest bellwether is NH (poll average Kerry +2.9 ±1.1%, n=7). Kerry by 5-7% would be consistent with my final assumptions. Next is WV. Let’s see what happens.

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Tags: 2004 Election

More on the Turnout Bias

November 2nd, 2004, 10:45am by Sam Wang

I have added two pages to the brochure – a graph to help you calculate for yourself the net bias, and an electoral map. Political psychologist Manuel M. Frank writes in with a model indicating that I have underestimated the turnout bias. Looking at his work, my original figure of +2.5% agrees with his calculations [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Final Report

November 1st, 2004, 11:00pm by Sam Wang

The last prediction is in. I have set the turnout figure to a lower bound of 1.5%, for a net of +3.0%. This is a value for which the median and map are readily reconcilable, which may reduce my email load. Readers, thanks for the dialogue. The box and final summary are updated. Other entries [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

The Cell Phone Effect

November 1st, 2004, 8:45pm by Sam Wang

For all of you writing me about the cell phone idea, I do not think this objection has merit. I have read the recent Zogby poll. I will write about this after the election.

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Tags: 2004 Election

Re-thinking the Turnout Factor

November 1st, 2004, 7:15pm by Sam Wang

Upon reflection the last bit involves double-counting of turnout. Perhaps this factor should be less than 2.5%. This will be reflected when I incorporate the last polls.

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Tags: 2004 Election

Making your own Prediction

November 1st, 2004, 6:30pm by Sam Wang

I’ve been getting criticisms of my original estimates of the undecided and turnout adjustments. Why don’t we postpone further discussion until tomorrow, when we know the true outcome. Anyway, I have given you enough information to let you make your own predictions. Lower and upper bounds can be set using Gallup’s last poll. This shows [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Gambling on the Outcome

November 1st, 2004, 4:45pm by Sam Wang

Gambling is a vice. But putting that aside, looking at TradeSports I think that a good cautious bet is to take equal positions against “Bush to win the election” (i.e. SELL, a bet that he loses) and against “Bush to win 250 or more EV” (i.e. SELL, a bet that he gets <250 EV). One [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election