Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Entries from November 4th, 2004

John Marshall’s Post-Election Thoughts

November 4th, 2004, 12:05am by Sam Wang

The meta-analysis has helped me stay rational in this election cycle, but some thought needs to go into future action. The election was close, but in a binary event 0.51 rounds up to 1. Anyway, here are some cogent post-election thoughts from Josh Marshall.

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Tags: 2004 Election

A Validation and Further Issues

November 3rd, 2004, 7:45pm by Sam Wang

A few items of business. First, note that without my optimistic assumptions, I nailed the Electoral College tally. This, even in the face of single-state probabilities that give a different map and EV total. Poll margins are also quite close: see these validations of the method (still under modification but viewable). Now there’s a testament [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

A Tonic Letter

November 3rd, 2004, 3:15pm by Sam Wang

Dear readers, I am getting lots of mail on my brilliant prediction. Thanks to all of you on both sides of the aisle. For many opponents of Bush, this election has been a wrenching event, not unlike a death in the family. This election was a highly significant political event that we will be feeling [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Wrong Assumptions

November 3rd, 2004, 11:30am by Sam Wang

To summarize points so far this morning: So far, the electoral outcome matches pre-election polling data very closely, with the possible exception of Florida. Therefore the electoral count looks a lot like the decided-voters median listed above. However, my final predictions were wrong. It appears that my add-on assumption about undecideds (the rule that they [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

A First Look Back

November 3rd, 2004, 10:30am by Sam Wang

In Ohio, many provisional ballots are left to be counted. In the meantime, here is some general analysis. Overall, pre-election polls, exit polls and actual voting are mostly correlated. An exception occurs in Florida, suggesting that something unusual might have happened there, either in voting or in exit and opinion polling. The effect is probably [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Can we Learn Anything?

November 3rd, 2004, 8:00am by Sam Wang

Good morning. First, the basic points: the polling data were fine, but my follow-up assumptions about net undecideds and turnout were wrong. The statistical approach is fine, and indeed still the best way to look at the data. The final result will be very near, and perhaps exactly equal to the decided-voters calculation. Finally, now [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

And it’s all about Ohio…

November 3rd, 2004, 2:15am by Sam Wang

I was very wrong about FL and about the overall offset. The outcome is somewhere between the decideds-only and the with-undecideds medians. However, for months I have been saying that it was about Ohio, and it is. The margin there seems headed for about 1%, without absentee or provisional ballots. Another squeaker – though things [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election

Kerry 259, Bush 254?

November 3rd, 2004, 12:45am by Sam Wang

Possibly K259, B254 (assuming MN, IA, HI, MI). Then Ohio (20EV) – returns here. May come to Cuyahoga County (includes Cleveland) and absentees. Also NV (5EV), but at this point that doesn’t matter.

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Tags: 2004 Election

Gender Imbalance

November 3rd, 2004, 12:15am by Sam Wang

Consistent with the gender imbalance, exit polls seem to be biased toward Kerry relative to final totals. Not crunching numbers yet but will try later.

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Tags: 2004 Election

The Afternoon Exit Polls

November 2nd, 2004, 10:00pm by Sam Wang

Zogby’s projections, which resemble mine, are here. Here is a plot of afternoon exit polls against my last poll margins. As you can see, most of the data points fall around Kerry +3%, the assumption that went into my final projection. However, the gender breakdown is 59F-41M, suggesting a biased sample, and thus indicating a [...]

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Tags: 2004 Election