Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

More on Florida

November 5th, 2004, 6:00pm by Sam Wang

I continue to be deluged by email on the subject of the anomalies in Florida voting in small counties. As I said below, these data sort fairly well by the rural/urban divide. In a graph by Jeff Chambers that there may be some small remaining anomaly. However, this could be ballot spoilage. Here’s an analysis demonstrating the size of the anomaly. I don’t think this is going anywhere. The most constructive thing at this point is to redirect energies to voting reforms, such as those advocated by the Open Voting Consortium. This has the advantage of serving all Americans.

In the coming days I will revisit polling data to see what the turning points were in the election, as measured through the Electoral College. I suspect that some of the shifts in my data that I could not explain may be explained by campaign moves that were not obvious at the level of national media. The electoral vote calculation is low-noise and captures swings well, so this is a perfect use for it.

Tags: 2004 Election

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