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The Afternoon Exit Polls

November 2nd, 2004, 10:00pm by Sam Wang

Zogby’s projections, which resemble mine, are here. Here is a plot of afternoon exit polls against my last poll margins. As you can see, most of the data points fall around Kerry +3%, the assumption that went into my final projection. However, the gender breakdown is 59F-41M, suggesting a biased sample, and thus indicating a problem with my assumption. However, as you all know, much depends on FL and OH. The partial returns for FL (77% of precincts reporting) indicate Bush – does anyone know if these include early voting, absentee and overseas? Overseas and absentee may not be counted until Thursday. Early votes – probably counted.

Exit Polls vs State Polls

Tags: 2004 Election

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