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Exit Polls Meta-Analysis

November 2nd, 2004, 5:45pm by Sam Wang

There are so many of these exit polls – just like the campaign season all over again. Time for meta-analysis. I am plotting all that I can find on my graph. Nearly all of them are above the no-bias line. Looking at all of them at once, the median bias seems to be about +3%. This suggests to me that if overall, these polls reflect total voting, OH and FL will end up for Kerry, with margins of 2% by night’s end. (Famous last words…)

Tags: 2004 Election

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