Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Mean Reversion; Zogby on The Daily Show

October 29th, 2004, 11:30pm by Sam Wang


After due consideration, I need to stick with using the mean in order to be consistent with previous analyses. Thanks for your patience – that’s what you get for a project that is essentially open-source – that is, I shoot first and take your feedback later. In retrospect the best approach might have been to use a filter weighted by time going back more than seven days. This will have to wait until 2008.

Pollster John Zogby was on The Daily Show last night. He said what I have been telling you for many weeks: a break of undecideds towards Kerry is likely to be enough to get him over the top. I did not watch the program, but I think Zogby did not mention turnout. Too bad – I remain convinced that turnout will be the decisive variable in this race.

The polling-related comments section is getting a bit out of hand. If anyone is aware of a chat room that focuses on this site, please let me know. I would love to restrict my comment thread to technical and other serious inquiries.

Tags: 2004 Election

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