Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

Probability of an Electoral Tie

October 27th, 2004, 12:30pm by Sam Wang


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Charles Cullen writes asking today’s probability of a 269-269 electoral tie. Using decided voters only it’s 3.9% – a lot! With the undecideds assumption it’s 0.4%. In this scenario the newly elected House and Senate would determine the president and vice-president, leading to Bush-Cheney (if the Senate remains Republican) or Bush-Edwards (if the Senate goes Democratic).

Tags: 2004 Election

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