Poll UpdatesMy regular email address works once again. Send your correspondence there.
Charles Cullen writes asking today’s probability of a 269-269 electoral tie. Using decided voters only it’s 3.9% – a lot! With the undecideds assumption it’s 0.4%. In this scenario the newly elected House and Senate would determine the president and vice-president, leading to Bush-Cheney (if the Senate remains Republican) or Bush-Edwards (if the Senate goes Democratic).
Tags: 2004 Election
Andrew says there was “a routing problem this morning between the University and quite a few outside websites — a split in the internet, if you will.” For the next EV estimator update, check back at noon…
Biden v. Palin drew 70 million viewers, one-third more than Obama v. McCain. VP debates usually don’t matter, but I wondered… Read more »
Tomorrow (Friday) at noon, I’ll give a talk in Kosuke Imai and Dustin Tingley’s political methodology seminar. If you’re nearby, you’re welcome to attend. Of course, the math will all be included. The blurb is here (PDF).
Update: Here’s another local event, happening next Tuesday: a panel on the reliability of state polls featuring both pollsters and academics, including Andrew Gelman, author of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State. I hear the panel will be webcast. If so I’ll post a link.
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