Princeton Election Consortium

A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004

National Polling Update

October 26th, 2004, 11:00am by Sam Wang

Statistically based analysis of the Electoral College is featured in today’s Wall Street Journal. Welcome to new readers!

The overall raw polling outcome (decided voters only) is still a statistical tie. This is true even with more than 100 polls used in today’s calculation. Bush has tiny leads among decided voters in Florida and Ohio, indicating that the outcome in these key states will be determined by undecided voters and turnout.

Finally, a note on national polls. In 8 national polls (two-way choice) the median result is Bush 49, Kerry 47. Assuming that methods are similar, the fact that this margin is larger than the Meta-Margin above supports the idea the distribution of support for the candidates gives Kerry a small advantage.

Tags: 2004 Election

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